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The Powell Put & the Bear Market Rally (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
09:53
In this wide-ranging interview with Grant Williams, Jeff Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, provides his valuable insights on the dollar, the explosion of the corporate bond market, and the rise of ETFs and passive strategies. He also touches on politics, weighing in on what “wealth tax” proposals will mean for the 2020 election. Filmed on February 20, 2019 in Los Angeles. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2NRhn4P About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx The Powell Put & the Bear Market Rally (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Hi. I'm in Los Angeles, California to sit down and have a chat with Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine. Jeff needs no introduction. He's always got something to say. And he's one of the most cerebral money managers out there today. I'm going to talk to him about politics, the dollar, the bond market, the equity market. There's so much ground I want to cover and we've got a limited amount of his time, so let's dive straight into it. Sure. Thanks very much. Great to see you again. Thanks for doing this. I know you've not been well. Neither of us have been, so we'll-- It's the time of year. It's that time of year. And a very cold Los Angeles. There's so much I want to talk to you about, but I want to start with the stock market. And there's something that has been on my mind, and that is December. Did something change in December? Or was it just a glitch as it's been nailed? Well, I think that the attitude about Jay Powell really changed a lot during December. Well, it kind of changed twice. First it changed in a way that accelerated the stock market lower. And I think that also has something to do with year end. I think there was-- people adjust things at year end. There may be some selling and the like. But Powell was thought to be different than the other Fed chairs. I fell for it too. Yeah. He was supposed to be non-academic. He doesn't have PhD in economics. And I think the word was pragmatic for Jay Powell. And then he showed up after the rate hike, at the press conference, and he sounded very different than being pragmatic. He's basically said, we're on autopilot with quantitative tightening, which is the last thing that a falling stock market needs to hear, because quantitative easing seems to be correlated with higher prices to quantitative tightening. It is interesting that the global stock market really accelerated to the downside in October, which is when QT was ramped up to a maximum of 50 billion per month. So Powell says we're on autopilot, which the market was shocked to hear, because they thought it was pragmatic and wouldn't be rigid in his thinking. And then he also used the word models a lot-- inputs to the models. And all of a sudden he sounded as wonky as any Fed chair ever gets. And kind of detached from being pragmatic. The market didn't like that at all. So when it accelerated-- I think about-- dropped 800 points from when he opened his mouth to the end of the press conference. And that scared him. And we had a complete 180 from the pragmatic Powell to the Powell put, which wasn't supposed to exist at all. And I don't think I can remember a rhetorical shift so rapid and so major from a Fed chair, because just a few days later, with the stock market in freefall, it's all about patience. And I didn't really ever say really that we were close minded on quantitative tightening.
Views: 55892 Real Vision Finance
Investing In Overpriced Markets (w/ Howard Marks) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
09:52
Legendary investor Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, explains how he invests successfully, fully aware that nothing is a sure bet. In this conversation with Grant Williams, he breaks down how he has navigated market cycles, and outlines the dangers that lie ahead in a world dominated by moral hazard and political polarization. Filmed on January 31, 2019 in Boca Raton, Florida. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2X66yjx About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Investing In Overpriced Markets (w/ Howard Marks) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Howard, thank you for taking the time to join me today. It's a pleasure to be here. I know you have a busy schedule and as I said, I've read everything you've written over the years. And I wanted to thank you personally for sharing all those thoughts because they've been hugely instrumental in me being able to built my own framework. And that's a lot of what I want to talk to you about today is how you think as well as what you think. And to start I just want to take you back to 2005, 2006 which was a time when you were making some pretty aggressive moves at the time with Oaktree's portfolio and talking about them. A lot of people kind of thinking, is he nuts? This is some pretty dramatic statements to make. Can you just take us back to that point in time and talk about what it was you were seeing and what you felt you had to try and prepare for? What we want to know is when psychology is too high and optimism is too high, and as a consequence, behavior becomes imprudent. When behavior is imprudent, then asset prices go too high based favorable expectations and the world becomes a risky place. We actually made the best purchases we ever made in the summer of '02 in the world of distressed debt-- because we had the meltdown of the telecoms, who had overborrowed to build fiber, and we had the scandal companies. And that was incredible. But the world bounced back from that. Actually it wasn't an event in the world, it was an event in a little corner of the credit market. But it came back and everything was hunky dory by '03 and well into '04. And it just seemed to go on from there. And to me, the most important thing was that in '05, '06 my partner Bruce Karsh and I spent the whole day complaining about the deals that were getting done. Any crazy deal could get done, you know? And when investors are practicing the willing suspension of disbelief, it's dangerous. And in a prudent market where people are appropriately skeptical and risk averse, there are deals that can't get done. But in that environment, they were. And so we just took that as a great sign of danger and so we sold a lot of assets and we liquidated some large funds we were managing and only replaced them with small funds-- and raised the standards for the investments we would make. And most importantly, at the beginning of '07, our distressed debt unds had always been a billion or two. And at the beginning of '07, we set out to raise a reserve fund that would invest if a crisis came along. And that fund eventually reached 11 billion by March of '08. Now this was about the time when you wrote race to the bottom, which is probably one of your most widely circulated memos. That was in the first quarter of '07. Yeah, I'm fascinated in what it takes to go from talking about how crazy the market is and how badly all these crazy deals get done to actually doing something about it. Because it's so easy to sit there and say, woah, this is crazy. And it's still crazy three months from now. How do you galvanize yourself to take action and say you know what, we're going to go out on a limb here and actually do something about this?
Views: 55925 Real Vision Finance
Investing Like Sheep (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Future Fears
 
06:10
Jeff Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, explains how the lack of original thought and analysis is causing polarization, leading to uncertainty around the world. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on March 8, 2019. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2PHXUVa About Future Fears: What s coming that we should all be worried about? What keeps the world s greatest investors up at night? Household names of finance discuss the terrifying potential risks posed by artificial intelligence, the rise of social media, autonomous vehicles and more. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Investing Like Sheep (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Future Fears https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2PHXUVa The reason people worry, I think, is that they are not acknowledging some certain dangers and they feel it subconsciously. I know that there's dangers, but I'm aware of them, and I look right at them. Nothing really keeps me up at night. I don't really worry about stuff anymore. I accept things the way they are, and I think the reason people worry, I think, is that they are not acknowledging some certain dangers and they feel it subconsciously. I know that there's dangers, but I'm aware of them, and I look right at them. And I think that's why I'm pretty good at managing money. I think it's about looking for risks, finding them, and accepting that they're there and trying to make them nonfatal. I'm really most worried about just the basic divide everywhere in the world, just the whole have, have-not thing, which is ushering in fractured politics everywhere. And it's not going to end until it fully ends. We're not going to get the genie back in the bottle. We're not going back to Bush versus Clinton, right? It's going to end up with awareness of the nonsustainability of debt, particularly now in the United States, particularly if our dollar drops, particularly if the challenge of the dollar's reserve currency becomes increasingly real because our interest rates would be a lot higher if we were not the world's global reserve currency. Well, but that's something that is definitely a topic that is moving closer to front and center. China's definitely moving in that direction. Yeah, but people kind of just dismiss it still. They say it's no chance. It's just like the deficit. It's one of these things where it's just a given. If you say the dollar will not forever be the global reserve currency, people don't understand because it's been their entire life. I remember in '08 before Lehman went bankrupt I wrote a white paper begging people to get out of commercial-paper money-market funds, and I gave a speech saying whatever you do, don't own a commercial-paper money-market fund because it's got all kinds of financial debt. It might be 30 days, but it doesn't matter. It could all default. And people couldn't hear me. They would come up to me after speech and say, did I hear you right? You said money-market funds can be risky? And I said, which one of those words did you not understand? This is not a complicated theory. Right. I was absolutely crystal clear in my statement. It wasn't oblique. And yet it's so foreign that they can't quite accept it. And so people need to listen with their mind as well as their ears and not just repeat what they're told
Views: 21931 Real Vision Finance
Brexit And The Impending Collision: Rome vs Brussels (w/ Nigel Farage) | Real Vision™
 
09:13
Nigel Farage, member of European Parliament for South East England, is synonymous with Brexit. He is a former head and founding member of the UK Independence Party. In this interview with Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald, Farage outlines why he became a eurosceptic, and why he thinks Britain will eventually leave the EU. He also forecasts a general rise in confrontations in Europe ahead, as national politicians’ interests collide with those of the EU. Filmed on February 22, 2019 in New York. Find more information at https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2Hr5RMc About The Larry McDonald Series: Larry McDonald, best-selling author on the Lehman collapse and founder of the Bear Traps Report, sits down with luminaries of the finance world in a 60-minute interview series. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx The Impending Collision: Rome vs Brussels (w/ Nigel Farage) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: I really want to understand the European elections. Yeah. Populists have obviously, the movement AfD in Germany, Lega, Five Star in Italy, even Vox, now, in Spain. Yeah. These are all populist parties that have gone from, as you've explained, I saw you speak at an event, a banking event where you said Lega and Salvini were 1%, 2%, 3% of the vote 10 years ago. Yeah. And where are they now? Explain that and that impact on the parliamentary I mean, they're up in the 30s now. In the 30s? Yeah. It's remarkable. And this is Italy, Lega. You know, when you think about Italian governments, what do they have? I think 51 governments in the first 50 years after World War II. I mean, you know, chaos is the norm in Italian politics. Governments come in and governments go. This government, this merger that has happened between Five Star, who are on the left, the Lega, who are on the right. Their approval ratings are up in the 60s. Together? Yep, together. And it's working. So this would be like in America, a Bernie Sanders party and a Trump party together. In many ways, it would be. Yeah, in many ways it would be. And that's just fascinating, to an American, to think. But it's working. They're clearly on a collision course with Brussels. Because one group wants to spend, one group wants to cut taxes. So how is that-- Yeah, that's difficult. --sustainable financially? Well, coalition forces compromise, obviously. But they presented a budget, their annual budget with a deficit running at about 2.4%. And, all right I know some of the future projections were a little bit optimistic for growth. But it wasn't, by any means, an outrageous budget, particularly given the French. After yeah, the expectations were I think, 4% or 5%. That's right. That's right. And they came in with 2.4. I thought it was relatively responsible. And yet, the European Commission, you know, and I repeat the point. Men and women who we can't vote for, men and women who we can't remove, people who have power without accountability rejected the Italian budget and made them cut it. And I think these European elections particularly in Italy, are effectively going to be a virility test of Italian political parties against that amount power being in Brussels. So you have Brussels, the EU parliament, and net, net, net, a larger percentage of populists will be in that government. Look, you know, I mean, when I was first elected to the European Parliament in 1999, I mean, I was the only secessionist in the place. I mean, literally, I was one out of 600 and something. I was the only person really there saying we shouldn't be part of this. It's going to be very different.
Views: 82036 Real Vision Finance
Recession, Gold and the Dollar (w/ Peter Schiff) -  Why Gold Is Going Up
 
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Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, talks with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, about the interaction between the dollar and gold. Schiff predicts that the Federal Reserve will ultimately have to decide between saving the dollar from hyperinflation and bailing out the U.S. government. In either case, gold is positioned to be a safe haven for investors should the worst come to pass. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on October 20, 2017. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2UDs2lp About Gold: A collection of interviews and documentaries focusing in on the famous store of value. The series takes a 360-degree view of the precious metal by examining gold's role in history and its proper place in modern investment portfolios. It interviews experts in diverse fields including mining, investment management and bullion storage. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Recession, Gold and the Dollar (w/ Peter Schiff) | Gold https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2UDs2lp I think a big part of-- most people in the gold world argument is there's a finite amount of gold. But there's a lot of claims on it. But there's only so much physical gold that exists. Right? But then there's the GLDs, there's the futures contracts that aren't really backed by gold, or you know you can't take delivery, the ETFs. So a lot of the argument is that when people scramble for gold, there's only so much actual physical that exists that'll push the price up a lot. Yeah. It's going to go up. And of course, you know GLD, that is physical gold because the GLD, the ETF has to buy the actual gold in order to issue the shares. But yes, in the futures markets, there it's a whole different ballgame. Because there, you have people selling gold who don't have it. Right. And people are buying gold that don't actually want it. They never intend to take delivery. So you can have this paper market of basically gambling on the price of gold. But yes, a lot of the demand that might otherwise go into real gold ends up going into futures contracts, which is not buying any actual gold. But where the problem is going to set in-- and maybe it's not a problem. If you're long gold, it's an opportunity, or a good thing. Right? But at some point. A lot of the owners of these futures contracts are actually going to request delivery. Yeah. Because just because they don't do it now doesn't mean they won't in the future. And at some point, the longs are going to want delivery and the shorts are going to get delivered a notice that says, yes. You need to deliver your gold. Now the shorts don't have any gold. Yeah. So now they have to go into the market and actually buy it. Well where are they going to get it? Right. And that's when you have a huge move up, and maybe even a bankruptcy of the COMEX Or does it have to be bailed out? Or what's going to happen? Or are the people who are requesting their gold going to be told you can't have it? You know, you're going to get paid in cash. Even though you requested physical delivery, it's not going to happen. So this could be an explosion of real buying of gold. And there are a lot of people that own gold. That, oh, it's all manipulated. And all the paper markets are keeping it down. Maybe so, but it can't go on forever. And for me, if they are manipulating it, that means the price of gold is artificially low. That means it's a great buy. Right, we're going to get paid.
Views: 53391 Real Vision Finance
A Lesson Learned the Hard Way (w/ Jim Rogers) | Perfect Timing
 
11:06
Jim Rogers talks with Steve Diggle about tripling his money and then giving it all back. The self-described “worst trader in the world” sheds light on how to think independently in order to see the truth. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on September 20, 2017 entitled “Global Risks and Untapped Prospects - Jim Rogers.” Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2Ln76jd About Perfect Timing: In this series, some of the biggest names in the financial industry share their experiences of getting it right at the right time. Hear about successful trades from the people who made them. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx #Equities #Macro #Career A Lesson Learned the Hard Way (w/ Jim Rogers) | Perfect Timing https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2Ln76jd When I first was in the business, I used to assume that everybody knew a lot more than I did. They were educated. They were experienced and everything. And so I just assumed they said x, x was probably the case. It took me a little while, but not too long to figure out they didn't know any more than I did. Well, the different answers to that question, I used to work for somebody named Roy Neuberger, who founded Neuberger Berman back in the '30s. And Roy Neuberger was an astonishing trader. He would be sitting there reading the Wall Street Journal, and he would say to me, there's 100,000 shares of IBM on the floor. Bid 90 and an eighth. I would say, what the hell was he talking about? So we'd go to the floor, and sure enough, 100,000 shares of IBM for sale. I don't know how he did it. He just had a sense of watching-- that they had the tape in those days, you know? He just had this unbelievable sense of timing and trading. He was a remarkable trader. Now, I'm horrible. He might have been the best trader I ever saw. Mike Steinhardt's another great trader, some great, great old traders in the business. If you're going to be a contrarian investor, which you've been very successful at, and you've had some epically great calls-- I was in Asia when you started talking about mainland China, when even lived in Hong Kong, no one thought there was a future for it. So you've got a record to prove it can be done. But I think for an awful lot of investors, both professional and people doing it with their own money, it's incredibly hard to end up with a level of conviction that allows you to be a contrarian investor. I mean, how do you develop that level of conviction? Well, first of all, you just used the term "contrarian." And by definition, I guess that's right. I never thought of myself that way. A contrarian would just say, they're all buying x. I'm going to sell x. That's not what I do. You're an independent investor. Right. That's a better way. I like that. That's what I'm trying to teach my girls, to think independently, to be curious. First of all, to be curious, to go and look at that thing that nobody's looking at. And then to think independently and say, they all say this is terrible, but I know-- it goes into my brain, and I spin it around, and it comes out that I know this is going to be good in the end. When I first was in the business, I used to assume that everybody knew a lot more than I did. They were educated. They have experience in everything. And so I just assumed if they said x, x was probably the case. It took me a little while, but not too long to figure out they didn't know any more than I did. In fact, they might know less than I did, even though they were experienced, and knowledgeable, and well-educated.
Views: 35433 Real Vision Finance
David Hay And The Bubble 3.0 | Grant Williams | Real Vision™
 
08:18
This conversation with David Hay didn't make it into the final cut of his recent Real Vision interview, so you'll sure as hell want to see what did. Learn from the best, watch the Grant Williams In Conversation With... series on Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/2OD8xX3 David Hay has been on the forefront of the financial advisory industry for nearly 40 years. He was the youngest member elected to Dean Witter, now Morgan Stanley's Chairman's Council in 1985. Since 2002, he has been the Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen GaveKal Capital Management." Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2OD8xX3 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ David Hay And The Bubble 3.0 | Grant Williams | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 11645 Real Vision Finance
Weaponizing The Dollar (w/ Luke Gromen and Brent Johnson)
 
11:17
Do the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have the stomach to break the global financial system with the dollar? Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital join Real Vision co-founder Grant Williams to examine the knock-on effects of an escalating currency war. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on February 4, 2019 entitled “The Great Dollar Debate.” Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2Yx7Io0 About Future Fears: What s coming that we should all be worried about? What keeps the world s greatest investors up at night? Household names of finance discuss the terrifying potential risks posed by artificial intelligence, the rise of social media, autonomous vehicles and more. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Weaponizing The Dollar (w/Luke Gromen and Brent Johnson) https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2Yx7Io0 When you talk about weaponizing the dollar, are you just talking about them allowing it to strengthen? They're going to make it a more attractive currency through interest rates? They're just not allow it to strengthen without stepping in? In this case, yes. The biggest threat to my expected pathway is the weaponization of the dollar with extreme prejudice. In other words, the US government and/or Fed decide that it is a good thing to break the world with the dollar, which they can do, to Brent's point. It's absolutely doable. And that they are willing to take the collateral damage that would go along with that, which is to say you'd break the US bond market, you'd break the US equity market, you would break consumption in the US. You would drive a severe recession, if not depression. All of those. If the United States government at the Fed are willing to do those things for a period of time with their eye towards a goal, you know, ala Paul Volcker, with an eye with their eye towards a goal of setting the United States up in a better bargaining position vis a vis China, vis a vis Russia, other emerging markets. And to try to stem the tide of dedollarization of commodity markets that's been going on, then Brent is going to be 100% right. And the dollar is going to go to 120, or 160, or some really big number, and there's not going to be enough dollars. When you talk about weaponizing the dollar, are you just talking about them and allowing it to strengthen? They're going to make it a more attractive currency through interest rates? They're just not allow it to strengthen without stepping in? In this case, yes. I mean, I think we've weaponization of the dollar, you've probably heard us talk about it being used in sanctions, regimes, et cetera. In this case, the weaponization, I use that term purely as a we're going to strengthen it, and we're just going to use it to let everybody else break themselves on it. So why is he an idiot? Because I've got to say, I listened to this, and I go backwards and forwards. Because the one thing is we will have to have an opinion on the dollar. And you have to build a trade process around that. And I've gone backwards and forwards. Right now, I lean towards Luke's camp. I've been in your camp, before but why are Luke and I idiots? Well, if you guys were idiots, I wouldn't be here. I should say that, too. Honestly, the only reason I even keep going back and forth with Luke is I actually respect his opinion. And I know how much work he's put into it, and how much time and thought he's put into it. I don't think he's out there selling something he doesn't believe in. I think he believes what he's saying. And if he didn't, I would delete the tweet, I'd block him, and whatever, right? But you know, the reason I engage with him is number one, I disagree with him. But every now and then, he says something that makes me, god, now I've got to go look that up, right?
Views: 10088 Real Vision Finance
End of the Cycle? (w/ Kevin Smith) | Trade Ideas
 
14:32
Kevin Smith, founder & CIO of Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 24, 2019. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2ZDfSwk About Trade Ideas: Top traders unveil their specific plans for cashing in on the market's next move. In these short videos, our traders cut straight to the point and lay out their thoughts on the best risk-reward trades of the moment. Each episode concludes with a visual recap of trade details including profit-loss potential and trade duration. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx End of the Cycle? (w/ Kevin Smith) | Trade Ideas https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2ZDfSwk Welcome to Trade Ideas. I'm Jake Merl sitting down with Kevin Smith, founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. Kevin, it's great to have you on the show for your very first Real Vision interview. Thank you, Jake. So before we get into your actual trade idea for today, can you please go over your background, who you are, and what you do at Crescat Capital? Sure, I'm the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. Crescat is a global macro asset management firm headquartered in Denver, Colorado. I have degrees in economics and finance from Stanford, and the University of Chicago. And I'm a CFA charter holder with about 20 years of portfolio management experience. At Crescat, we are about developing tactical macro themes to time the business cycle. And they derive from our fundamental equity and macro models. Our macro thematic investment process applies to all three of Crescat's strategies. Our Crescat large cap, our Crescat long short, and our flagship global macro hedge fund. And so with that in mind, today, we'll be talking about the S&P 500. And I want to get your thoughts, Kevin. Are you bullish, bearish? What's your take as we're breaking out to new all time highs? Well, we really believe what's going on today is really a triple top pattern, if you will, in the S&P 500, that is really retesting all time highs at record valuations and record late in the economic cycle. So I understand the market is expensive. But how expensive is it, really? Well, when we look at the market, we look at about eight or nine different valuation factors. And across all of these factors from price to sales, the price to book, EBITDA, free cash flow, the market is at record all time high valuations or very close to it. Really, it peaked out in September of last year across all these valuation metrics. Market cap to GDP is another one. And at Crescat, we have a 16 factor macro model that we use to time the business cycle and the stock market. And the model really has a great track record of timing the peaks of the tech bubble and the bottom of the tech bust. The peak of the global financial crisis, the housing bubble, and the housing bust, if you will. And today, that model is near the 100th percentile for record late cycle and record overvalued. And so we think that's just another set of indicators that tell us that we're at the top of a business cycle.
Views: 19704 Real Vision Finance
Algos Have Taken the Rhythm Out of the Market | Stanley F. Druckenmiller | Real Vision™
 
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Investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff is embarking on a series of exceptional interviews from his personal contacts for Real Vision. In the second episode of his series, he sits down with a revered titan of the investment world: Stanley F. Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller has an unrivalled track record that spans many decades. But what might be most incredible is that even whilst becoming one of the world’s most successful money managers, Druckenmiller has also managed to maintain an incredibly balanced and happy life. This interview provides an unrivalled opportunity to learn the previously unheard secrets of an investment legend. Filmed on September 6, 2018 in New York. Kiril Sokoloff is the chairman & founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research. To find out more about 13D Publications, visit http://www.13D.com/RVSD Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NJeYvX About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 19562 Real Vision Finance
Losing Money Without Losing Your Edge (w/ Peter Brandt) | Mental Game of Trading | Real Vision™
 
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Who better to kick off our new Mental Game of Trading series than Peter Brandt, a 40-year veteran of the markets. In this episode, Peter explains some of the common mental pitfalls that can commonly affect traders. He explains how to deal with painful drawdowns, opens up about his own worst losing period, and reveals what it took for him to get back into the black. Start a 14-day free trial to start watching: https://rvtv.io/2qXmcPK Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Trade Ideas: In this series we meet with an array of the best and brightest analysts and traders in the financial markets. They discuss their favorite trade ideas of the moment in short 5-15 minute videos that are bursting with actionable content. The presenter will explore the key points of each trade, asking questions or providing signposting as required. Particularly important are discussions about risk/reward and position sizing. New episodes are filmed every week to keep the content topical, relevant, and fresh. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Losing Money Without Losing Your Edge (w/ Peter Brandt) Game Of Trading | Trade Idea | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 14770 Real Vision Finance
China's Double Economy (w/ Miles Kwok) | The Kyle Bass Interviews | Real Vision™
 
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Kyle Bass sits down with infamous Chinese businessman Guo Wengui, also known as known as “Miles Kwok,” to hear a series of shocking accusations and predictions revolving around the Chinese government. Kwok provides his perception of the backstory behind several recent high-profile news items, and touches on the Chinese government’s management of the economy. He also unfurls an alarming forecast about Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma. Filmed on October 5, 2018 at an undisclosed location. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2SjGK0Y About The Kyle Bass Interviews: Kyle Bass is one of America’s most widely respected hedge fund managers. He is famous for developing big, bold ideas – and then acting on them. But how does he form these revolutionary insights? In this exclusive series of hour-long interviews, we find out. Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management opens up his incredible Rolodex to give the Real Vision audience an unprecedented peek inside his unique information-gathering process. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ China's Double Economy (w/ Miles Kwok) | The Kyle Bass Interviews | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 10800 Real Vision Finance
Unfunded Pensions & Potential Disaster (w/ Brian Reynolds) | Real Vision
 
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Brian Reynolds, former chief market strategist at Rosenblatt Securities, sits down with Real Vision’s Tyler Neville to discuss how unfunded pension liabilities are the real engine for the US credit boom and how this financial engineering has produced one of the greatest bull markets in history. A legal mandate requires these funds to generate 7.5% returns, and when they fail to do so, taxpayers foot the bill. As a larger percentage of these pensions are moved onto corporate balance sheets in the form of debt, the tightrope these pension funds walk gets more and more precarious. Filmed on March 25, 2019 in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2H0wx5M About Skin In The Game: What is the big money up to right now? In each episode of “Skin in the Game,” an esteemed fund manager sits down to discuss their outlook on the markets, their current portfolio positioning, and their best investment idea. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Unfunded Pensions & Potential Disaster (w/ Brian Reynolds) | Skin In The Game https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision #Retirement #Equities #Pension Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2H0wx5M Before we invented the margin credit market, the stock market ran on fundamentals, things like earnings, things like valuations. And then the credit market came along, and starting in the 1990s, disrupted that whole process. 40 years ago in the '70s, the average company was highly rated, AA or AAA rated from a credit standpoint. Now we've added so much leverage in the last 40 years that the average credit quality has gone down to just above junk. Brian Reynolds, here to talk about unfunded pension liabilities, the credit boom and corporate buybacks. And we're here at this lovely New Hampshire Institute of Politics, which is the perfect setting for our conversation. First, why don't you just get everyone familiar with your background and maybe go through that a little bit. Sure. So in a month it'll be my 35th anniversary in this business. I started in 1984. And I've been in the business so long, the junk market didn't exist when I started. That's how long I've been in the business. The first 16 years I spent on the buy side of David L. Babson and Company. It was a great place to work because it started in 1940. I have mentors that go back to the 1920s, '30s, and '40s, they taught me to follow the money. They taught me this business the old fashioned way. And I've brought that through every job I've ever had since. And it was a great place to be because that was the emergence of credit as an asset class. Not only was the junk market not invented yet but the actual investment grade credit market was still in its infancy. So it's a very different world now than it was then, because credit is now so big it dominates financial markets, but back then it was a backwater. So I ran our money market funds, which is where shadow banking started. I was in charge of bank and finance bonds, which is some of the original shadow bankers. And then in the late 1980s, as structured finance began to become more significant, I was in charge of that product from the late '80s until 2000. So I kind of grew up with the Martin credit market. I saw it develop from almost nothing into this large asset class, which is now the tail that wags the dog. Some of the things you talk about, the Daisy chain of capital, now that's like a primary theme throughout your work, can you explain that for the viewers? Before we invented the Martin credit market, the stock market ran on fundamentals, things like earnings, things like valuations. And then the credit market came along, and starting in the 1990s, disrupted that whole process. So now we're in the third modern credit boom. The first one lasted from 1991 through 2000, then we had a financial disaster.
Views: 48592 Real Vision Finance
What's Driving Towards Protectionist Tariffs? (w/ Peter Zeihan) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
04:40
Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan, author of The Accidental Superpower, delves into the breakdown of global trade. Using geography, demographics, security and economic trends, he explores why the geopolitical framework that developed after WWII is dissolving and which countries stand to benefit. The only financial TV that matters. Start a 14-day free trial on Real Vision to watch this interview in full: https://rvtv.io/2J5ZXl3 Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ What's Driving The Movement Towards Protectionist Tariffs? (w/ Peter Zeihan) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: You've got to take a step back way back, really to the beginning of the industrial period or before, if you want to. The point was there are very few places in the world that have good geography internally that allows them to consolidate into a single ethnic group and do so in a way that generates wealth. You need flatland. You need good agricultural space. You need a good river so you can move things around in your own system. That doesn't happen in large portions of the planet. And even that isn't quite enough. You have to have significant barriers between you and your neighbors. Otherwise, you'll tend to get invaded every generation or two. This means that in the world before what we consider normal, there were really only about a dozen significant powers, and they would branch out beyond these core zones as empires in order to conquer large tracts of territory and use those resources to feed their populations, to trade, to have captive markets, and ultimately, to outcompete everyone else who was among those 12. This led to wars, a lot of them. Constantly, bigger and badder wars as the industrial period built. Eventually, you got things like tanks, and artillery, and ultimately, hydrogen bonds. That lead to World War II. That brought the entire system crashing down. And of those 12 geographies in the world, only 1 of them wasn't leveled, and that was the United States. So at the end of World War II, the Americans brought their allies together at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and basically held a conference and laid out what the rules of the new age were going to be. So instead of everyone competing for global domination, it's pretty clear the United States held all the tools here-- had the only global Navy, had the only economy that had survived the war, had the only industrial base. So the Americans proposed a trade. We'll open our markets to you so you can export your way back to affluence. We'll use our Navy to patrol the global oceans so that you can buy any product from anywhere in the world, ship it home, process it into finished goods, and then re-export it for hard currency. We'll protect the entire supply chain, so you're not any longer limited to the territory in which you directly control. You can access everything. And in exchange, all we ask is for the right to protect you from the Soviets. And for all the empires, there was a degree of confusion on here. So they're like, OK, let me get this right. You're going to give us for free everything that we have been struggling to achieve ourselves for the last thousand years, and you're going to protect us. Deal. That's the Cold War. This is NATO. This is the European Union. This is the Chinese Communist Party. Because the beauty of the Bretton Woods deal was you could extend it to new members at any time. And as the 40s turned into the 50s turned into the 60s turned into the 70s, the Bretton Woods alliance continued to expand,and expand, providing the economic basis.
Views: 23600 Real Vision Finance
Turning Points And Timing (w/ Felix Zulauf) Outtake | Grant Williams | Real Vision™
 
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This conversation with Felix Zulauf didn't make it into the final cut of his recent Real Vision interview, so you'll sure as hell want to see what did. Learn from the best, watch the Grant Williams In Conversation With... series on Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/2E2lWT3 Felix Zulaufis an investing legend who has been a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for over 30 years. Famous for his big calls ahead of the 1987 crash, the bursting of the bubbles in Japan and US tech, and the subprime crisis, he has built a stellar track record over a 40-year career. For the fourth in his “In Conversation with...” series, Grant Williams travels to Felix’s home in Naples, Florida to talk about that storied career and the important lessons that Felix has learned along the way. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Turning Points And Timing (w/ Felix Zulauf) Outtake | Grant Williams | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 16486 Real Vision Finance
The Story Of Shorting Home Capital (w/ Marc Cohodes) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
14:27
This Home Capital story didn't make it into the final cut of the Marc Cohodes interview on Real Vision, so you'll sure as hell want to see what did. Listen to Marc Cohodes on Real Vision and become a better investor: http://rvtv.io/2oiHI2f Real Vision's new flagship interview series premieres, as famed short seller Marc Cohodes joins Grant Williams for a candid and emotionally raw interview. In the first in a series of extended discussions with successful investors, Grant asks Marc about his short selection process, the difficulty of managing emotions when embroiled in a fight and his current battles with a series of companies he believes to be fraudulent. Marc offers a vicious takedown of biotech company MiMedx, and shares a gut-wrenching story of losing money during 2008, despite being perfectly positioned. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube:http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ The Story Of Shorting Home Capital (w/ Marc Cohodes) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Are you a farmer? Are you learning to be a farmer? Or is it something that you've always wanted to do or? Well, my grandfather was a farmer in Wisconsin. It's very good for one's mind. So I enjoy it, sort of but a different version. My main passion is my family and these goofy ass stocks, and these crappy companies. But to unwind a little bit I do this and I have fun with it. Marc Cahodes is well known for his very public stance on Canada's home capital group. A company he believes will eventually go to zero. In my recent conversation with him at his chicken farm in Sonoma county, Marc recounted his Home Capital story, as only he can. Amazingly our conversation was so good, so varied and so wide-ranging that what you're about to watch had to be left on the cutting room floor. Now think about that for a moment, if the Home Capital story didn't make it into the final cut for the interview with Marc Cohodes you'll sure as hell want to see what did. So there's few people who I really respect investment-wise, one is Steve Eisman who is a pal. I like him. And he, I think, mentioned Home Capita Sohn Conference I don't know if it was '13, '14 or '15, he brought it up. And it put it on its radar for me, cause I didn't really know about it then. And he was right but they doubled the stock on him, which doesn't make him wrong, just makes him early. It's happened to me more than I'd like to remember. So I was watching it cause again I'm a huge fan of his, and the Canadian housing market was booming. And Home Cap with insider selling comes out and misses a quarter, and I'm thinking "Fuck, how are these guys missing a quarter with the market booming so much?" And I shorted the stock that day, it was down 3 or 4, low low 50s and that got me started on it. I didn't know at the time it was a fraud but there was clearly something going on which caused them to miss, they had to come clean on a billion eight of mortgage fraud, first 900 million then a billion eight. Stock then traced to low 30s. Only then did I realize that this thing was just a major fraud. I mean Home Cap is a bank, that should have failed. It's a fraud, it's a fraud on the public, it's an admitted fraud. They've still done a bunch of stuff they haven't confessed to, but in order to build this thing out the Canadian banks, the legitimate banks, wanted nothing to do with them. So the only way to solve this thing was with a Warren Buffett type figure because the real banks and the finance people in the know in Canada wanted nothing to do with them.
Views: 20875 Real Vision Finance
This Is A Bear Market (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
09:14
Victor Sperandeo, President & CEO of EAM Partners, sits down with Adam Rodman, founder and portfolio manager at Segra Capital Management, to break down the relationship between shifting political tides and macroeconomic trends. Sperandeo provides his view on the history of recessions in the United States and on the current inflationary environment. Filmed on January 3, 2019 in Dallas. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2skC9jb About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ This Is A Bear Market (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Victor, thanks. It's great to sit down. Two people that are Dallas-based. Maybe I'll even start just by saying that there are a lot of people that have been on Real Vision lately that are talking purely about the markets and kind of a broad sense, bull market, bear market, credit bubble, not credit bubble, whereas maybe you have some kind of more nuanced views. But if we take a step back, maybe somebody watching the interview would say that we could possibly be from different investing generations. But I think from what I know about you, we might look at markets the same way. So here maybe 10 years or so into a monetary experiment, just generally, what do you think about markets now and where we are maybe in the market cycle, the economic cycle, et cetera? OK, well these two integrated parts to everything you do in Wall Street, and that's the fundamental and the technical, simple. There's also the psychological and the emotional side of it, but-- Sentiment. --just for the point of your question, we're in a bear market. It's 100%. Now why do I say that? Perhaps a background to people listening would be important, because it's a very solid statement, so I want to give you the background. Now I started on Wall Street in '66, and I started trading in '68. Now I've probably read 3 plus 1,000 books. One of the books was a book by a fellow named William Gordon, who is the CEO of Indicated Digest. Now that's before your time. They were a major force in the technical end of the business in the '60s. And they took the 10 major indicators at the time-- now they had odd lot theory, things that nobody even knows what that means. And they traced that back to 1900, 10 different indicators, and then many permutations of those indicators. So the one that came in first was the simplicity of using a 200-day moving average, trading days, and when the price-- whether you use S&P, the Dow was popular at the time-- closes below that, and the moving average is sloping downwards, it's night and day if it's sloping upwards, think down. Sloping down, which you sell, and then you would buy in the reverse. That concept, from 1900 to 1966-- book came out in '68-- yielded 18 and 1/2 percent compounded. I took it forward. We have a trading staff research firm, and we have three PhD math professors, et cetera. And we ran it forward, and they were similar. Now the second best technical indicator was Dow theory. Came in at 18%. Again, similar results. Compounded at 18%. Now the one thing that I did that Bill Gordon didn't do, was that using real money as such, when you sold, you put the money in 1-year bills. He didn't add that dimension, so mine, perhaps, was a little less than the 18 and 1/2%, because I added to it by getting yield when I was in cash. So now these two indicators gave bear market signals, one in October, the 200-day moving average was the first, and then later in early December, Dow theory confirm. So you're in a bear market, and as far as I'm concerned, unless something changes-- now nothing is infallible-- but I lean very heavily that these are accurate. The other part would be the fundamentals. Now, you heard the expression that the market is predicted 14 out of the last 10 recessions, and a lot of people use that.
Views: 26454 Real Vision Finance
Kyle Bass On: China’s Currency Conundrum | Interview | Real Vision™
 
02:48
Legendary investor Kyle Bass, the founder of Hayman Capital, joins Real Vision’s Grant Williams for a deep dive into China. From shifting capital flows around the world to the threat of China devaluing the yuan, these two discuss threats and opportunities that China presents investors now. Filmed September 17, 2018 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2CSWxix About The Kyle Bass Interviews: Kyle Bass is one of America’s most widely respected hedge fund managers. He is famous for developing big, bold ideas – and then acting on them. But how does he form these revolutionary insights? In this exclusive series of hour-long interviews, we find out. Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management opens up his incredible Rolodex to give the Real Vision audience an unprecedented peek inside his unique information-gathering process. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Kyle Bass On: China’s Currency Conundrum | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: I'll give you a great anecdote. I met with someone in the Russian finance ministry. And we became-- we shared information. This isn't a collusion thing. We were talking very specifically about this the geopolitical economic situation and our work in Asia. And they were keen to understand a few of the points that I had made at a conference. At the conclusion of the call, and I'd never really spoken at length with these people before, but I know exactly who they are. And I think they were brilliant in understanding flows. They're the best I've ever spoken with, which is really interesting. And at the end of the call, they said, well, you may be right, but we're Russia. We'll be here when it happens. We don't know if you'll be there when it happens. We had this great information exchange and what I thought was a very productive call, something that's going to be the beginning of a two-way flow that I was going to enjoy. And at the end, he just made sure to let me know that I'm in a business that is a fickle business and that they run the Russian Finance Ministry, and they'll be around. GW: I mean, it is interesting, but it's a valid point. But when you say you've got to be in now, how do you do that? Because obviously, you've got currency strains, you've got the bond strains. But you've also got this ability that the Chinese have to pull levers that we don't even think about, and you've got that tailwind for them and that people will sit and believe any number that comes out of China, because it's generally accretive to their own investment position. If the Chinese say our GDP is 8%, no one's going to argue. They don't want to cause bullshit. People say well, you can't prove it. So how do you position yourself to have skin in the game that is manageable? KB: You just have to try to time it. I mean, that's the best answer I can give you is you have to try to time it. GW: But is it currency? Is it the bond market? Is it equities? KB: It's currency. Again, the only arbiter of the Chinese position is going to be their currency. Right, if you're in the Chinese stock market, or if you're the Chinese bond market, they can manipulate that market. They're big enough, they're smart enough. You think about Hong Kong and the financial crisis, you remember the HKMA bought funds. GW: The tracker fund. Absolutely right. KB: And they bought a lot of them. And so if you are short equities, they can ban short selling. They can manipulate. They can purchase. They can do anything they want to do. But again, the ultimate arbiter is what is the world willing to exchange an RMB for $1 for.
Views: 6992 Real Vision Finance
Sovereign Debt and Gold (w/ Luke Gromen & Brent Johnson) | Gold
 
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Luke Gromen, author of Forest for the Trees, and Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, discuss the importance of gold during the late stages of sovereign debt bubbles. Gromen explains why gold can be “useless” for 99% of the long economic cycle, but then critical during the other 1%. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on February 11, 2019. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2IIwsF5 About Gold: A collection of interviews and documentaries focusing in on the famous store of value. The series takes a 360-degree view of the precious metal by examining gold's role in history and its proper place in modern investment portfolios. It interviews experts in diverse fields including mining, investment management and bullion storage. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Sovereign Debt and Gold (w/ Luke Gromen & Brent Johnson) | Gold https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2IIwsF5 You know, one of the things that also goes along with the dollar is gold. I don't know that me and you have ever really talked that much about gold. Maybe we have a little bit here and there, so I thought we could touch on the dollar a little bit more if you want to, but we can talk a little bit more about gold, kind of where you see it's going. I'd be happy to. For me, I think about gold differently, I think, than some people do from really two ways. Number one, I think gold is really useless for about 99% of the long economic cycle. And then in the 1% of the economic cycle, the long economic cycle which tends to correlate or coincide with sovereign-debt bubbles globally, it's critical to own. And so the overriding-- I never had much interest in gold before 2008, and I think it's an important asset to own some of because I think we are in the midst of a global sovereign-debt bubble that's begun to unravel. And then I think there's also another way that we've thought about gold and talked about gold a lot which is it is being leveraged by a couple other countries, and China in particular, as a means of gaining credibility for China to be able to print yuan for oil and other imported commodities. And so I have a lot of people ask me, hey, why do you think China is buying so much gold? Why are they importing so much gold? What's the end game? Do they want to back the yuan with gold? And I suppose that's possible. It's not how I see them using it. What I think they're doing is what China's doing with gold is not about gold. It's about oil. It's about copper. It's about iron ore in that they basically appear to have reopened sort of a version of the Bretton Woods gold window where basically-- the right way to think about, in my opinion, is China's wanting to use, or at least offer, gold as sort of a treasury bond settlement instrument under the post-Bretton Woods system that the United States has chaired. So those are two different ways that we are thinking about gold at the present moment. And so do you personally own gold, or do you recommend people buy gold, or are you recommending miners or physical? What's kind of your view as far as investment-- and maybe you don't give investment advice, but I'm just curious if-- Sure. No, I do own it personally. I never owned any before 2008 and have held it the entire time. It's a good-sized position for myself. And I think everyone at this particular moment the long cycle I think should own some because history is replete that sovereign debt always defaults, always. and you're at that moment in time where we have too much. There's a sovereign-debt bubble. Up until recently, no one was questioning the credibility of sovereign debt, particularly in the Western side, Western sovereign-debt markets. I don't think we're fully there yet, but we've already run the playbook. Well, we'll grow out of our sovereign debt. We tried. It didn't work. Well, we'll financially repress out of our sovereign debt. We tried. It didn't work. Populism's breaking out.
Views: 3970 Real Vision Finance
Kyle Bass On: Capital Flows in China | Interview | Real Vision™
 
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Legendary investor Kyle Bass, the founder of Hayman Capital, joins Real Vision’s Grant Williams for a deep dive into China. From shifting capital flows around the world to the threat of China devaluing the yuan, these two discuss threats and opportunities that China presents investors now. Filmed September 17, 2018 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NLAZFz About The Kyle Bass Interviews: Kyle Bass is one of America’s most widely respected hedge fund managers. He is famous for developing big, bold ideas – and then acting on them. But how does he form these revolutionary insights? In this exclusive series of hour-long interviews, we find out. Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management opens up his incredible Rolodex to give the Real Vision audience an unprecedented peek inside his unique information-gathering process. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Kyle Bass On: Capital Flows in China | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: I think what we try to understand is the capital flows. When you think about capital flows, what do we learn 10 years ago, almost to the week, was that flows mattered more than the stock. And as soon as the flows became meaningful, the stock became important. And so this idea of what happened to Lehman, what happened to Bear Stearns, what almost happened to Goldman and Morgan Stanley actually applies in the context of the sovereign realm. There are many more variables to the equation, but when you think about how China operates and how it operates globally, you have to bifurcate your thought into two buckets. One bucket is how China operates domestically. They have a renminbi-based economy that they essentially control. And I think global investors understand that they can control their internal accounts of RMB, basically however they wish. They can print more. They can recap banks. They can make losses go away. They can make people go away. They can do all kinds of things internally that we really aren't privy to and probably won't ever be privy to. But the kind of the barometer, or let's say the arbitrator of China's cake and eat it too strategy is the exchange rate vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Now as you know, they're a massive net importer of goods, of call it raw materials, whether that is iron ore or crude oil or derivatives thereof. They need foreign currency to continue to grow China Inc's working capital. You think about it as working capital. The way that that works is they need positive capital flows annually on a net basis. So their current account has to be positive. They have to be growing their wealth, and they have to be growing it in foreign currency terms, not just in RMB terms. And so what we've studied are those capital flows, and we've studied their use of dollars, euros, and yen, and really, it's mostly all dollars. The euros and yen are negligible. When we think about dollars, China's brought roughly 400 million people out of abject poverty into the middle class, and they've taken the middle class to the upper class and the upper class to the elite, well, what's the first right the wealthy Chinese and middle class Chinese want to exercise, and it's their right to travel. Right, sure. Because the PRC said, we want you to travel. When they travel and spend abroad, they spend dollars. They don't spend RMB, because Jamba Juice won't take RMB, and the hotels in London won't take RMB, and the hotels here won't either. We're a long way from that. And when you think about, you look at the Swift global settlement system, if you look at the most recent report that Swift has put out, Chinese GDP is around-- if you dollarize the RMB at the current exchange rate is about 15% of global GDP. They're the second largest economy in the world behind us. But it's Swift settlement terms, the RMB doesn't even amount to 1% of Swift settlements. So they kind of have this-- they have this world that's of their own conjuring.
Views: 9164 Real Vision Finance
Gold Manipulation: Fact or Fiction? | Gold | Real Vision™
 
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Watch the full gold documentary parts 1 and 2, exclusively on Real Vision. This is your chance to watch a new groundbreaking documentary on gold and share it with your family & friends: https://rvtv.io/2uZaNjl In the second part of Real Vision’s ground-breaking documentary, Grant Williams examines how gold is bought and sold around the world, explains the difference between ‘the gold price’ and ‘the price of gold,’ and explores some of the legends that surround the yellow metal. Grant also weighs up the possibility of the world returning to a gold standard and addresses the all-important accusations of manipulation that surround the subject of man’s 6000-year obsession. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Gold Manipulation: Fact or Fiction? | Gold | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Because of its fascination for mankind, gold has always been surrounded by conspiracy theories and stories of price suppression and manipulation. That's really no surprise. After all, wherever you find money, you inevitably find human beings trying to cheat in some way or another. Fake gold bars have frequently surfaced over the years, with gold-plated tungsten, which has an identical density to gold, being the most common substitute. Fortunately, any one of a number of very simple tests will provide a conclusive answer as to whether a particular bar is fake or not. Gold is unique. However, the most important questions about possible manipulation of the gold price concern much broader issues and occur at a much higher level. Well, look, the question about manipulation is clearly a favored one, people like to discuss this. I do think that even a cursory glance at historical fact will lead you in fairly clear direction. I mean, it's not like this is a hidden thing. I mean, the London Gold Pool existed, it was an overt way of managing the gold price in terms of its price. It's clearly in the interest of central bank to manage, particularly in the monetary system as it functions right now-- whether it does function not being a slightly separate point-- it's clearly in their interest to manage the risk-free rates. Would you influence the gold price? Well, it's said that gold is the reciprocal trust of central banks, you betcha it would achieve the gold price, notwithstanding the fact that central banks are the biggest holders of gold-- 60% of their reserves are in gold, would you want to suppress it? You betcha. The problem's too big. Are they doing it? I don't know is the answer, but money-- there's always a raising certainty, they probably are. Others, however, are far more confident, not only as to the question of whether the gold price is manipulated, but also who the culprits might be. Well, the gold price is absolutely manipulated. When I say that, I'm not, you know, implying some deep, dark conspiracy. I don't think Janet Yellen wakes up in the morning and thinks about gold-- I don't think Janet Yellen knows anything about gold to be honest with you. She's sort of a geeky liberal labor economist who worships the Phillips curve, so I don't think Janet Yellen is behind some conspiracy to suppress the price of gold. But there's absolutely manipulation. I've spoken to several experts. One is a PhD statistician, so it's not a PhD in economics, it's a PhD in statistics. Works for one of the largest hedge funds in the world. He looked at a 10-year time series and he took-- like literately tick-by-tick information on the COMEX gold futures for 10 years, and he said there is no explanation for this data other than manipulation, it could not possibly have happened through normal market forces. In particular, he knows that at the end of the day, like on the last trading tick on the COMEX, the price of gold got smacked down. And then at the open the next day, it could kind of pop up again.
Views: 10756 Real Vision Finance
Kyle Bass On: China’s Current Account Deficit | Interview | Real Vision™
 
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Legendary investor Kyle Bass, the founder of Hayman Capital, joins Real Vision’s Grant Williams for a deep dive into China. From shifting capital flows around the world to the threat of China devaluing the yuan, these two discuss threats and opportunities that China presents investors now. Filmed September 17, 2018 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2AhBaoz About The Kyle Bass Interviews: Kyle Bass is one of America’s most widely respected hedge fund managers. He is famous for developing big, bold ideas – and then acting on them. But how does he form these revolutionary insights? In this exclusive series of hour-long interviews, we find out. Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management opens up his incredible Rolodex to give the Real Vision audience an unprecedented peek inside his unique information-gathering process. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Kyle Bass On: China’s Current Account Deficit | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: the most interesting thing, when you really look down at the numbers is their current account's gone negative for the first time since 2001. All right, so it's really 17 years since it's been negative, and the first half of this year, it's negative. And there are a few reasons why, the travel services deficit, getting the $320 billion, and the second thing when you look at their current account is they're such a massive net importer of energy. Sure. So you look at energy. If you remember end of 2014 when crude oil collapsed from 100 down to 35, and iron ore the base metals went with it, that gave China a huge reprieve. Their current account was right at 0 at the end of 2014, and that it bounced back up into the low single digits, because all of a sudden their raw materials costs collapse. So what's interesting is the net volume of crude oil that they import has gone up 45% in four years. And now what's the price doing? It's turning. Yeah. So the price of crude has gone from mid 30s to call it 70, and the same for our base metals, iron ore, and lot of the inputs that they have. So when you look at their current account, this is not an aberration, right, and the reason they're fighting so hard on trade is while they run a big trade surplus with the US, they run trade deficits with everyone else everywhere else. And so they run a $400 billion trade surplus with the US, and their current account's negative. Yeah. Right? And what we're doing is putting some tariffs and trying to at least level the playing field on unfair trade practices. And that's why they're really pushing back so hard, because they're out of dollars. So they are desperately short dollars, and now their current account's negative. And so when you think about this fallacy of China can have its cake and eat it too forever, I think we all know that that can't happen. And what we're seeing now is all the preconditions are set forth for pretty material devaluation.
Views: 6603 Real Vision Finance
Five Common Mistakes Investors Make (w/ Michael Mauboussin) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
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Michael Mauboussin, director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management, discusses the five most common behavioral mistakes he sees investors make. He explains what scientific research can teach us about investor behavior, and discusses how the types of mistakes made can shift over the course of an economic and market cycle. With this background set, Mauboussin provides tips for plugging one's behavioral leaks. Finally, he explains how one might be able to make better decisions by anticipating the mistakes of others. Filmed on January 25, 2018 in New York. Now, for a limited time, subscribe to Real Vision for just $180/year and we’ll throw in a full year of free access to Business Insider Prime (worth $99). Click for your 14-day trial: https://rvtv.io/2xmCu84 Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Five Common Mistakes Investors Make (w/ Michael Mauboussin) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 17750 Real Vision Finance
The Macro View on Gold (w/ Tavi Costa) | Trade Ideas
 
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Tavi Costa, global macro analyst at Crescat Capital, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, confirms his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 24, 2019. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2L3KnZb About Trade Ideas: Top traders unveil their specific plans for cashing in on the market's next move. In these short videos, our traders cut straight to the point and lay out their thoughts on the best risk-reward trades of the moment. Each episode concludes with a visual recap of trade details including profit-loss potential and trade duration. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx The Macro View on Gold (w/ Tavi Costa) | Trade Ideas https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2L3KnZb Welcome to Trade Ideas. I'm Jake Merl sitting down with Tavi Costa, Global Macro Analyst at Crescat Capital. Tavi, it's great to have you on the show for your very first Real Vision interview. Thank you, Jake. I appreciate it. Looking forward. So before we get into your actual trade idea for today, can you please go over your background, who you are, and what you do at Crescat Capital? Sure, I've been working for Crescat for about six years. And I usually focus more on the global macro research and help Kevin Smith, our CIO, on the portfolio-management part. And Crescat's investment process really revolves around building fundamental equity macro models. And essentially, that is how we develop our investment themes. At any point in time, we have about three investment high-conviction ideas in the portfolio. Today, we have three. So one would be the US stocks. They're historically over value. And the second would be China being the largest credit bubble we've seen in history. And the third one would be the precious metals, which is what I want to talk about today. Precious metals is what we see as a tremendous value with the turning in the business cycle, which we think is going to happen anytime soon. So we'd like to elaborate further on this. So what are you looking at specifically that's shown you it's a good time to be bullish on precious metals? Sure. So today, it's more of a big macro picture. We put out this chart looking at historical imbalances in total debt to GDP of the last largest credit bubbles we've had in the last 30 years, all the way going back to the 1990s with Japan, 1997 with the Asian crisis, and US housing bubble in '07, '08, and that European debt crisis in 2011 and 2010. And what you find there is that if you calculate the average of those imbalances at the peak of those bubbles, it was somewhere around the 245% of total debt to GDP. And if you looked at the top largest total debt-to-GDP ratios today-- or 2018 because that's the most recent data you can get-- you get somewhere close to an average of 270%. So you look at that imbalance. It's not a macro indicator for timing. However, when you put that together, usually, when you have excessive amounts of that, it tends to cause destruction of value of global fiat currencies. And when you put that together with the monetary base-- the size of monetary base today and money supply globally, relative to above-ground gold, and then you kind of line up with all the macro indicators that we have today, which I'm going to be talking about soon, that makes us really believe that gold and precious metals essentially look very attractive as a long here, in any portfolio, really, as a hedge.
Views: 12103 Real Vision Finance
The Gold Manipulation Question (w/ Grant Williams)
 
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Is the price of gold manipulated? If so, who is manipulating it, and why? Real Vision co-founder Grant Williams asks a host of experts that question to decipher the truth. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on February 23, 2018 entitled “Gold: The Story of Man’s 6000 Year Obsession.” Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2WUiyEl About Gold: A collection of interviews and documentaries focusing in on the famous store of value. The series takes a 360-degree view of the precious metal by examining gold's role in history and its proper place in modern investment portfolios. It interviews experts in diverse fields including mining, investment management and bullion storage. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx The Gold Manipulation Question (w/Grant Williams) https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 16093 Real Vision Finance
The Global Collateral Trap & An Asset Market Collapse (w/ Michael Howell)
 
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Could a global collateral crunch cause “hair-trigger” markets to plunge into a 2008-style sell-off? Michael Howell, founder and managing director of CrossBorder Capital, breaks down the causes, and likely effects, of a liquidity crisis in global financial markets. Filmed on May 2, 2019 in London. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2Yv1HIs About The Expert View: Deep dive analysis from global experts exploring investment risks and opportunities. A perennial RV favorite, Expert View probes the minds of leading professionals of their respective fields and offers insight into every corner of financial markets. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx The Global Collateral Trap (w/ Michael Howell) https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2Yv1HIs I don't think policymakers can afford to let asset markets collapse in the way that they've collapsed before. The simple reason is that this is the main source of demand. This is a feature of markets, we're going to see more and more episodes like December of 2018. Very sudden shots, people panic, you get blunt selloff symbols straight, and then calming words from central bankers, maybe they'll rebound again. If you look at the reaction of financial markets to economic events, they're on a hair trigger. And only a little bit of bad economic news and markets plunge. A little bit of good economic news, they power up again. And I've never seen sensitivity of that degree. I'm Mike Howell, I'm CEO of CrossBorder Capital, based here in London. My background has been in research. I've been in financial markets probably 30 years, originally at Salomon Brothers, and then I had a research at Bearings. Why does liquidity matter more than interest rates? If you look at the financial system, effectively, the financial system relates to an economy that is now not raising new capital. It's effectively refinancing its existing capital. And that goes back to the change in the world economy that we saw around the fall of the Berlin Wall. Emerging markets came in, it made it very unprofitable for Western industry to set up new plant. Consequently, they didn't. They just went into for cost restructuring. And effectively, what they're doing is just raising their cash flows. And what you're seeing in Western financial markets now is effectively a big roll. They're taking on debt, they're refinancing. If you're refinancing, it's not the interest rate that really matters- it's the capacity. It's the ability to roll your positions over. And balance sheet is all important. That is what our measures of liquidity are all about. They're measuring balance sheet size.
Views: 25966 Real Vision Finance
Market Breaking Points (w/ Raoul Pal) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
17:00
Raoul Pal sees many critical markets at absolutely key levels. He starts with the tech giants, explaining why Google’s chart has become “the most important in the world,” before moving on to a bevy of other stocks, indices, currencies and commodities. What will break first, and how bad could the damage get? Start a 14-day free trial on Real Vision and find out how we can help you to become a great investor: https://rvtv.io/2GWTxn5 Filmed March 29, 2018 in Grand Cayman. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Market Breaking Points (w/ Raoul Pal) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 38565 Real Vision Finance
S&P 500: Something is Ridiculously Wrong (w/ Michael Gayed) | Trade Ideas
 
10:02
Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Pension Partners and author of The Lead-Lag Report, returns to Real Vision to update his bearish thesis on the stock market. He highlights the importance of lumber as a key indicator, notes just how low he sees the S&P 500 going, and considers risks to his thesis, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 23, 2019. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2vhZxiV About Trade Ideas: Top traders unveil their specific plans for cashing in on the market's next move. In these short videos, our traders cut straight to the point and lay out their thoughts on the best risk-reward trades of the moment. Each episode concludes with a visual recap of trade details including profit-loss potential and trade duration. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx S&P 500: Something is Ridiculously Wrong (w/ Michael Gayed) | Trade Ideas https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2vhZxiV Welcome to Trade Ideas. I'm Jake Merl sitting down Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Pension Partners, and author of The Lead-Lag Report, Michael, it's great to have you back on the show. I appreciate the invite. So you were last year about a month ago bearish on the stock market. And as we've seen, the market has continued to drift higher since your last interview. So give us an update. Where are we now? Have you changed your mind? Or do you think the market is still due for a sell off? I'll make the case to your audience that I think something is ridiculously wrong here in the way markets are behaving. I know everyone's excited looking at the S&P being pretty much back at all time highs, and NASDAQ. But not everything has really V'd in the same way that US large caps and tech in particular has. When you look at small caps, small caps are nowhere near their all time high from last year. You look at lumber, which we'll talk about, it's actually turned the wrong direction. Lumber, which is a key, key indicator of strength in US markets and risk on sentiment. And you've got I think a lot of just other divergences that are happening. One of things I said last time was that I thought that a W was more likely than not. I still think that's very much at play. Meaning that, when you look at the way markets have come off of the lows in December, I still think there's a very real chance you could revisit those lows, maybe break them. And I don't think that that should really surprised anybody when you look at the overall weakness in other more riskier segments of the market, which have not participated to the same extent as the S&P. So what are the specific signals that you're seeing that's flashing red right now? So there are a few things I think happening here, right. So the most notable one by far and away is lumber. So I'm actually going to be at the NAAIM Conference this weekend, invited to be a speaker. I co-authored a paper that won the Founder's award for NAAIM that spoke about lumber. And in that paper, the finding is very simple. When lumber is weak generally, over a rolling three month period, what you tend to see is broader stock market weakness with a lag afterwards. There should be some logic there right in the sense that lumber is a key component to housing. Average house has about 14,000 board feet of lumber. If lumber is doing well, it means that consumer wealth is likely to increase, because it's anticipating some kind of pickup in housing. As much as we live in the world of the stock market, the average person lives in the world of their house, and that's where most of their wealth comes from.
Views: 42560 Real Vision Finance
Killing The Hong Kong Dollar (w/ Miles Kwok) | The Kyle Bass Interviews | Real Vision™
 
02:56
Kyle Bass sits down with infamous Chinese businessman Guo Wengui, also known as known as “Miles Kwok,” to hear a series of shocking accusations and predictions revolving around the Chinese government. Kwok provides his perception of the backstory behind several recent high-profile news items, and touches on the Chinese government’s management of the economy. He also unfurls an alarming forecast about Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma. Filmed on October 5, 2018 at an undisclosed location. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2CIwcTN About The Kyle Bass Interviews: Kyle Bass is one of America’s most widely respected hedge fund managers. He is famous for developing big, bold ideas – and then acting on them. But how does he form these revolutionary insights? In this exclusive series of hour-long interviews, we find out. Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management opens up his incredible Rolodex to give the Real Vision audience an unprecedented peek inside his unique information-gathering process. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Killing The Hong Kong Dollar (w/ Miles Kwok) | The Kyle Bass Interviews | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 7853 Real Vision Finance
The Chemistry Of Gold | Gold | Real Vision
 
01:24
Why is gold used as early money instead of other metals? Let’s look at the periodic table and find out. This is your chance to watch a new groundbreaking documentary on gold and share it with your family and friends: https://rvtv.io/2JM2cGp Check out this short animation (and the rest of this brief animation series), narrated by Grant Williams, to find out more about the history of gold: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2-78gs9nRfNbf-M8LAJuWxUzeQ3yRxh_ Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ The Chemistry Of Gold | Gold | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 3907 Real Vision Finance
Silver And Gold In The Modern Portfolio (w/ Naylor-Leyland) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
28:21
The question of whether precious metals have a place in one's portfolio is a never-ending debate, but an equally important yet often-overlooked question is "how much"? Ned Naylor-Leyland of Merian Global Investors discusses the role that gold and silver can play, and the important differences between sizing bullion versus sizing mining stocks. He also provides his theory for why central banks continue to accumulate bullion in their own portfolios. Filmed on October 11, 2018, in London. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2qPBi9u About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Silver And Gold In The Modern Portfolio (w/ Naylor-Leyland) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision" Transcript: A good proportion of people's negative perspective on this asset class is because they've understood the structural problem, then they've got their position sizing wrong. This idea that gold and silver mining companies are brilliant at capital instruction, I think, is, is just wrong. In a world where we're awash with credit and everything is somebody else's obligation, the one thing that isn't is something that really ought to be in everybody's portfolios. I'm Ned Leyland. I'm the Portfolio Manager of Merian Global Investors Gold and Silver Fund. The fund is a combination of bullion, held in bullion trusts, and gold and silver mining equities. If you're asking about a forecast for gold prices, you have to think about it in your base currency. And actually, for a lot of investors, because they're not taught about gold-- and gold sort of lives under the table-- it's this kind of strange, esoteric subject-- investors, even professional investors, struggle with this problem. So they, they. So people based in London look at gold in dollars, which is just completely unhelpful. So my outlook for gold is always a 12-month and longer time frame because I think that's the way you need to think about it. And it's based on gold's actual positioning, which is in the cash and bond market. People get very excited about what may or may not be happening in equities. But, of course, gold is a cash-money instrument. And it behaves inversely to dollar real yields. That's to say it's not about inflation on its own, and it's not about rates on its own. But it's about the relationship between the two. And right now, we have-- depending on who you speak to-- three or four hikes, still priced in on a forward-looking basis. And I tend to say that I think it's more likely we're going to get less than we are going to get more than that. But, you know, I look at the Barclays-Bloomberg 7- to 10-year Real Yield index as a key forward-looking measure of what's happening in cash, or rather-- let me rephrase that-- what the bond market thinks is happening in cash. But I think therein lies the investment case for gold, really, which is, there's a huge difference between what the bond market is pricing and what participants actually believe. And I think that that's the way to think about gold. So to dig into that slightly, if you look at that index, it's suggesting that a dollar will be worth between 100 cents and 101 cents seven to ten years in the future. But when I anecdotally poll investors and potential investors in my fund about what they think the purchasing power of $1 will be on that forward-looking -- basis seven to 10 years-- they will, to my surprise, but delight, too, actually come up with an average number of $0.50. So investors seem quite clear that the dollar, and sterling, and anything else is losing purchasing power a lot faster than the screen suggests. But yet, when it comes to actually investing in what the bond market itself says on the screen, it's still at 101.
Views: 14926 Real Vision Finance
Fed Trapped "Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea" (w/ Julian Brigden) | Expert View
 
30:12
Julian Brigden, co-founder and head of research at MI2 Partners, believes the U.S. economy is at a critical inflection point. In this episode, Brigden interrogates the economic expansion and asks the tough questions about the rally in stocks: Why have U.S. equities outperformed the rest of the world so late in the cycle? What are the key risks? And what will central banks do next? Filmed on April 19, 2019 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2Wda76E About The Expert View: Deep dive analysis from global experts exploring investment risks and opportunities. A perennial RV favorite, Expert View probes the minds of leading professionals of their respective fields and offers insight into every corner of financial markets. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Fed Trapped "Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea" (w/ Julian Brigden) | Expert View https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2Wda76E This is another classic example of the sort of academically driven policies that we've seen come out of the halls of central banking, which are no longer really populated by central bankers, but by academics. The theory was fine, OK? The theory was kind of like how you launch an aircraft off an aircraft carrier. You jam the aircraft back at the back of a deck. You let it build up enough momentum and speed. And then eventually you let the elastic band go, and the thing soars off into the bright blue yonder. That's great on paper, but it comes, unfortunately, with some consequences. Hello, everyone. My name is Julian Brigden. I'm the co-founder of MI2 Partners, and the co-producer, along with Raoul, of Macro Insiders. I'm here today, because I think we're at a really important inflection point in markets. I think the big debate now, at least in the equity market, and this opposition in the equity market, is that the central banks have once again pulled the rabbit out of the hat, and successfully reflated the bull market just like, in a way, that they did in early 2016. I think that's possible. I'm not sure that we're quite there yet. I think some of the assumptions that are being made are a little pre-emptive. And so I think there are some still risks. I think ultimately I'm pretty certain where the trend is going. But I think it's important at this juncture to sort of take a step back, look at how we ended up here potentially, and what are those markers that you need to be watching. How did we get to where we are now? I put some slides in the presentation. And the first one that I've stolen from the Fed is Janet Yellen's slide on optimal control from D-day of 2012-- so 6th of June. If you look at that slide, what you'll see is a sort of typical trajectory of where rates should have gone. And then you see a dotted green line that represents Janet Yellen's policy, which she referred to as optimal control. This is another classic example of the sort of academically driven policies that we've seen come out of the halls of central banking, which are no longer really populated by central bankers, but by academics. And the theory was fine, OK? The theory was kind of like how you launch an aircraft off an aircraft carrier. You jam the aircraft back at the back of a deck, you let it build up enough momentum and speed, and then eventually you let the elastic band go, and the thing soars off into the bright blue yonder.
Views: 26440 Real Vision Finance
A Model For Managing Macro Risk (w/ Raoul Pal and Keith McCullough) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
09:39
In his inaugural appearance on Real Vision, Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye, explains why now is the time to pay special attention to macro risk. In his opinion, factor-based index investing and the growth of market-neutral hedge fund strategies have made financial markets more sensitive to macro risks than ever before. With growth slowing globally and volatility rising, investors need to find ways to marry bottoms-up analysis with top-down risk assessments in one holistic approach. Keith speaks specifically to fixed income, currency, and industry sector strategies. He and Raoul also discuss the issues with the mainstream financial media landscape. Filmed on January 14, 2019 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2sKT8v4 About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ A Model For Managing Macro Risk (w/ Raoul Pal and Keith McCullough) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Keith, great to finally get you here at Real Vision. We've had so many people trying to introduce us, get us together, and I've always been following you. Well, I followed you for a long time on Twitter and other things and thinking, this is a guy we need to get on Real Vision. So finally, thank you for coming to join us. Well, thanks. Thanks for having me and for making it work. Your studio is far nicer than mine. Thank you. So look, tell people a little bit about the background of what you do now and then more importantly, how you came into the business and a little bit of your story. So now I have a company called Hedgeye that's 10 years old, but I started as any other analyst on Wall Street. Got a job as a hedge-fund analyst. Didn't know what I was doing. Started to figure that out a little bit. Worked with a guy named John as he was breaking up with a guy named Art Samberg You probably recall Pequot Capital. Yeah, and Art's been on Real Vision. OK, cool. So we were right there on Pequot Avenue-- that's why it's called Pequot in Southport, Connecticut. And I cut my chops as a buy-side analyst. Then they gave me my own book, probably too early. Back then we didn't have factor exposures or limits or-- Which year was this? This is back in-- well, I started as an analyst back in 2000. Graduated from college in '99. As a Canadian, you're about 35 years old at that point. So then that rolled into your traditional Wall Street investment-banking program. Couldn't stand that after a year and went to the buy side, and then eventually became a portfolio manager, had my own fund. And you were running tech, a tech portfolio? Consumer, global consumer with a big-- and that's how I got into global macro was I got tired of modeling companies that couldn't tell me what the forward outlook was from a macro perspective because that's, of course, what they would always get wrong, so I would get it wrong, and I didn't like being wrong. So I started to build a global macro overlay to actually analyzing companies from a bottom-up perspective, which was easier with global companies like Nike, for example, or some of the big ones that I started to understand better earlier.
Views: 6082 Real Vision Finance
Predicting The Global Economy (w/ Raoul Pal) | Macro Insiders | Real Vision™
 
39:37
The only financial TV that matters. Start a 14-day free trial on Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/2PiqRpL Raoul Pal, founder & publisher of the Global Macro Investor research service, walks us through how to build the business cycle in your investment framework. Raoul describes his probabilistic method of combining the secular cycle, the business cycle, and the shorter-term business cycle, including his secret weapon of charts - the ISM Real Vision is the world's only video-on-demand channel for finance. No sales, no bias, no bullshit - Real Vision is the world's smartest investors, in one place. Start your 14-day free trial of Real Vision. Learn how you can become a great investor: http://rvtv.io/2BFLqc6 Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Boom, Bust, Rinse & Repeat: Predicting The Global Economy (w/ Raoul Pal) | Macro Insiders | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 107894 Real Vision Finance
Pro-To-Pro (w/ Raoul Pal & Keith McCullough) | Hedgeye | Real Vision™
 
10:23
Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough & Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal's Interview on Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/2E2MwPh This is a clip from a “Real Conversation” between two macro heavyweights—Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal & Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. They dive deep into the dicey global macro set-up with a special focus on big risks/rewards facing investors. Watch full interview free here: https://rvtv.io/2BsMeiT Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Pro-To-Pro (w/ Raoul Pal & Keith McCullough) | Hedgeye | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 4669 Real Vision Finance
Pre-Recession Patterns Occurring Now (w/ Alex Gurevich) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
04:03
Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, has developed a framework of timing signals during a twenty-year global macro trading career. Now he says that a late-cycle signal has recently been triggered. And upon further investigation, he has found a pattern of confirmation that provides sufficient reason for him to adjust his investment outlook. In this clip Alex discusses the pre-recession patterns already starting to occur. The only financial TV that matters. Start a 14-day free trial on Real Vision to watch this interview in full: https://rvtv.io/2I4yiwQ Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Pre-Recession Patterns Occurring Now (w/ Alex Gurevich) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: What I find particularly interesting that there is a large number of patterns of price actions that people use to argue that we actually in midcycle, that the economy is strong. But all of those things have been present at the end of the last two cycles. I will start with one, which was particularly interesting and decisive-- is the price-action oil. Well, we currently have oil made a low, a very significant low, a couple of years ago. And that's been running very strong. And many people argue it is a argument for inflation or indication of strong global growth. But if you look at the previous two cycles, oil did exactly the same thing. It made a low, a local low, one or two years before the recession arrived, and was strongly running up right into recession. It is actually a very, very distinctive pattern by itself. And in here, just as with everything else I will say further, the rise of oil price itself is not an indicator of recession coming. Very often, it goes up, and the recession doesn't come. But it is consistent with late cycle. Like, current price-action oil is consistent with late cycle. So what are the things that people-- what are consistent with late cycle? One of them is the arrival of stock-market volatility. And what is interesting is that when this volatility arrives, like it did in January of this year-- end of January of this year-- or it arrived in March 2000, or it arrived in July and August of 2007, neither of those actually marked the absolute top of the stock market. For example, NASDAQ, even this year, made another high recently, I think in March. Similarly, the stock market highs were actually December 2007, much closer to actual recession. So this arrival volatility, but not the top, is very consistent of late cycle. And also, divergent performance. This is might be a little too technical, but divergence performance between various stock indices. In 2000, there was a period when NASDAQ started to sharply outperform Dow. And then it sharply underperformed. And we had this on a smaller scale, this type of price action, this year as well. In fact, arrival of strong earnings and unambiguously-strong economic numbers is also consistent with late cycle. This all happened in other cycles. The arrival of very strong inflation concerns that people claim was the argument that rates will continue to go up-- like the very low unemployment, strong job growth, or growth in average hourly earnings, all this stuff actually which people see as an indication to higher rates-- in the past led to much lower rates, because that marked the end of the cycle in the past. Particularly interesting it is that I observe the pattern in bonds. What I look at is all adjusted, classical bond futures. They're long-- total return chart. Both of them had protracted back up.
Views: 18009 Real Vision Finance
Crisis Management (w/ David Hay) | Perfect Timing
 
07:37
How do you handle client relationships during a financial crisis? David Hay, CIO of Evergreen Capital, talks with Real Vision’s Grant Williams about managing money and clients through the 2008-2009 collapse. He discusses the challenges he had in managing clients’ emotions, despite his perceptive call that recession was coming. This video is excerpted from a piece published on Real Vision on November 16, 2018. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2LjZRsn About Perfect Timing: In this series, some of the biggest names in the financial industry share their experiences of getting it right at the right time. Hear about successful trades from the people who made them. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Crisis Management (w/ David Hay) | Perfect Timing https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2LjZRsn By '08, the end of '08, early '09, it was terror like I've never seen. You could not reason with people. They were losing so much money so fast. I remember one client saying, if I keep losing at this rate-- this is like the January of '09-- I'll be out of money by the end of the year exactly. I mean, people that normally would be buyers in a weak market, they were like, I just want to stop the bleeding. This is about survival. Seeking to understand what's happening beneath the market's surface is the very essence of active management. It's what separates the professional manager from the retail investor, and it's the answer to the question, why do I pay fees when I can invest in passive instruments and save myself a few basis points? Never is that more vital than a key market inflection point, which of course is precisely when the maximum number of retail investors need experienced counsel more than ever. But when they are least receptive to the message. I want to take you back to '08, and let's talk about that relationship and those conversations you had. For you, I know from '06 onwards, I know the conversations you were having. From your side, I'm interested to hear how those words of caution were received. And then coming into '08, how the dynamic between you and customers changed. So let's say-- summer of '07, I actually wrote a newsletter saying I thought there would be a recession and of '08. Lot of pushback. A lot of, like, oh, you're way too alarmist. And our thing was derivatives and leverage. Housing that had just looked very precarious. And as it turned out, we were not negative enough. Right. But people were not really receptive to hearing even our message back in '07. By '08, the end of '08, early '09, it was terror like I've never seen. You could not reason with people. They were losing so much money so fast. I remember one client saying, if I keep losing at this rate-- this is like, January of '09-- I'll be out of money by the end of the year Exactly. I mean, people that normally would be buyers in a weak market, they were like, I just want to stop the bleeding. This is about survival. The only way, frankly we dealt with it is because the yield securities, preferred stocks, midstream pipelines, corporate bonds-- high yield bonds were yielding 23%. They were way cheaper than the stock market was. The stock market was-- it was undervalued, but as you've seen, it wasn't 1982 undervalued, 1974 undervalued. Not even close. But the yield markets, corporate yield markets, were 1932.
Views: 4053 Real Vision Finance
The Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley F. Druckenmiller
 
01:24:39
Investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff is embarking on a series of exceptional interviews from his personal contacts for Real Vision. In the second episode of his series, he sits down with a revered titan of the investment world: Stanley F. Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller has an unrivalled track record that spans many decades. But what might be most incredible is that even whilst becoming one of the world’s most successful money managers, Druckmiller has also managed to maintain an incredibly balanced and happy life. This interview provides an unrivalled opportunity to learn the previously unheard secrets of an investment legend. Kiril Sokoloff is the chairman & founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research. To find out more about 13D Publications, visit http://13d.com. Filmed on September 6, 2018 in New York. Watch more Real Vision videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision: Real Vision is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with orginial content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision. Connect with Real Vision Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Video Title https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 173821 Real Vision Finance
The Coming Retirement Crisis Explained and Explored (w/ Raoul Pal)
 
48:52
In this hard-hitting Real Vision special, Raoul Pal presents the single most important financial topic of a generation — the Baby Boomer retirement crisis. He asks the hard questions: Can you afford to retire? How will the coming crisis impact your life? What risks are you unknowingly taking with your retirement? Moreover, will the insufficient retirement savings of the largest generation in history cripple the economy? Raoul also explores how savvy retirees might avoid — and even profit from — the threatening crisis. In addition, Raoul also offers a glimpse of a brighter future, in which smart millennials take control of their own financial destiny and side-step the crisis. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://we.tl/t-DUVzH4pHwz About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. #retirement #retirementcrisis #pensions Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx The Coming Retirement Crisis | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: What's very comfortable now may not be so comfortable later on. That's when I might have to take out my mutual funds. My only worry is my dad works for the state of Illinois. The state's pretty much insolvent. And even his health care, which is through the state of Illinois, it could take up to a year for him to get reimbursed for things like that, so that is worrisome. Justine Underhill: Retirement is all some people ever think about, especially the 50-million-plus Americans set to retire in the next few years. They obsess over it, like my dad did. It's what they worked for. It's their dreams. But those dreams could be shattered. You're about to hear Real Vision's founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, explore why we're heading into a retirement crisis in America and around the world as many people take on more risk than they understand. I was curious to see if anyone was thinking about this, so we spoke with people in New York and heard the same story over and over-- people pushing off retirement, people not having enough savings, people relying on government pensions. Here's some of what they said. No. No way I could have saved enough for retirement. I mean, I have enough to retire, let's say, if I want to go to Wyoming or something like that. I saved enough for at least the next 10 years. Who knows with inflation what will happen, but I feel the next 10 years, I'm OK. If the United States government goes out of business, then my pension won't be there. These stories were just a small sample of what we heard. And this is not just something that those actively looking for retirement are going to face. It's something that's going to have a big impact on my generation as well, whether it's figuring out pensions, or social security, or potentially supporting our own parents'. Retirement is part of the promise of life in the developed world. And if that promise isn't met, it's really going to affect everyone, whether you're hoping to retire in 5 years or 50. Roaul Pal: My name's Raoul Pal. I'm the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. But today, I'm talking on behalf of Global Macro Investor, my research business. I want to talk about what I think is the biggest, single theme of our generation. And I think it's the most important thing that anybody can understand. And it's all about the pension crisis. You see, demographics is the big story of our time. And it's all about the story of the baby boomer generation. This was the largest generation of people the world had ever known in the richest countries in across the globe. Now, that generation drove all of the macroeconomic forces that we come to recognize as normal. When they first came into the labor force back in the 1970s when they 20 or so years old, what they did was they bid up the demand for goods. Because if you think about it, a record number of people came in to buy their first suits, their first house, their first car, their first table, their first chair. Everything was new. That demand created an enormous problem for the world to deal with, and it created the inflationary environment of the '80s.
Views: 1109853 Real Vision Finance
Bespoke Tranches And Debt Derivatives (w/ David Meneret) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
02:24
After being decimated in the wake of the financial crisis, the bespoke debt derivative market has grown rapidly in the past three years to over $100 billion today. David Meneret, CIO at Mill Hill Capital, sees lurking risks in this ballooning market. He explains the potential dangers, and walks us through the catalysts that threaten to trigger a wider downturn. Filmed on March 28, 2018 in New York. We are all subject to cognitive biases, but when it comes to investing these can be ruinous because they stop you asking the right questions: https://rvtv.io/2EVuwDA Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2EVuwDA About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Bespoke Tranches And Debt Derivatives (w/ David Meneret) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Interestingly, there's another, I'd say, the cousin of CLOs in the corporate space. They can be called CSOs. Most recently they've been called bespoke tranches. They're not a new thing. They've been around before. The only thing that is interesting about bespoke tranches is that they almost disappeared. They went down to less than $15 billion, basically, back in 2015, and they've slowly been rising to more than $100 billion today, according to Mill Hill estimates. So $100 billion, it's not massive in the grand scheme of things, especially when you take into account what it used to be pre-crisis. There was a market pre-crisis that was more than $500 billion. One of the big buyers of those tranches was AIG. We're not talking about something that is as big as it used to be. The reason why it is actually quite worrisome today is that it's been rising very fast. It was less than $15 billion three years ago, now it's more than $100 billion. And the reason why it's been rising very, very fast is, basically, there's been a quest for yield. This quest for yield has been magnified by a never ending bull market. And at the end of a bull market, what you try to get is basically yield where it's hard to find. And where do you find yield? Where you find yield in areas where there is typically a high amount of leverage. Now, the interesting part about bespoke tranches is that not only you're getting exposed to some levered companies and getting some yield, getting rewarded with some yield for that, but also you are getting very low haircuts from specific banks in the US. So banks are providing financing to investors who want to buy those bespoke tranches. And the types of haircuts I'm talking about can be in the range of like 2% to 10%, 15%, which means that you can ultimately be up to 80 times levered-- 8, 0-- 80 times levered on a basket of US companies.
Views: 3968 Real Vision Finance
Using The Dollar Cycle to my Advantage | Macro Insiders (w/ Julian Brigden) | Real Vision™
 
06:42
Julian Brigden explains how he uses the dollar cycle to his advantage as an investor, and how you can too... Take advantage of our special discounted rate for Macro Insiders of $2997 (the price goes up on August 6th 2018): https://rvtv.io/2v39sbx Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ How I Use The Dollar Cycle to my Advantage | Macro Insiders (w/ Julian Brigden) | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 4062 Real Vision Finance
Short Selling Is like Life Saving (w/ Marc Cohodes) | Grant Williams | Real Vision™
 
04:43
Watch this full interview with Grant William and Marc Cohodes exclusively on Real Vision. Learn how you can become a great investor: http://rvtv.io/2BC9hXi In this clip, Marc Cohodes explains how the 'reach, throw, row, go' life-saving technique he learnt as a camp counselor can apply to shorting stocks. Real Vision's new flagship interview series premieres, as famed short seller Marc Cohodes joins Grant Williams for a candid and emotionally raw interview. In the first in a series of extended discussions with successful investors, Grant asks Marc about his short selection process, the difficulty of managing emotions when embroiled in a fight and his current battles with a series of companies he believes to be fraudulent. Marc offers a vicious takedown of biotech company MiMedx, and shares a gut-wrenching story of losing money during 2008, despite being perfectly positioned. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ When Short Selling Is like Life Saving (w/ Marc Cohodes) | Grant Williams | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 5123 Real Vision Finance
Why Invest In Aviation (w/ Marc Lasry) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
04:49
From co-owning Milwaukee’s NBA franchise to working with multiple U.S. presidents, Marc Lasry has worn many hats during his career. However, the co-founder of Avenue Capital Group says his core strategy for making money today does not resemble the approach he took a decade ago. In this in-depth interview, Lasry speaks with Illinois State Board of Investment chairman Marc Levine about running a successful hedge fund, finding value in Europe and Asia, and why he loves opportunities in aviation. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Why Invest In Aviation (w/ Marc Lasry) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: So Avenue Aviation is a fund that-- that's actually how we met originally. And that's an asset that you've invested in back in the multi-- when you were doing multiple strategies, and then like energy, carved out. So can you sort of describe that business the way you do it? Sure. So really what you're doing is you're buying a hard asset. That's what a plane is. So think of it this way. Everybody wants a new plane. And the reason people are buying new planes, every five, 10 years, new technology comes out. And you add lighter frames, so you are saving money on fuel costs. And that was the biggest -- other than the new technology -- the biggest expense for airlines is really the fuel costs. So think of a car -- same thing. Everybody wants a new car. And you want it because of new technology, and it's more miles to the gallon. Now when all of a sudden oil goes from $100 to $50, you're not really as focused on saving money on fuel. So where we saw that there was a huge opportunity is end-of-life planes. That planes that used to cost $100 million when they were new, 15 years later, 20 years later, those same planes are $5 million. So you can buy those planes – think of it again as a car. So a 20-year-old car, whetherit's a Mercedes or it's a Ford or whatever, it's still a 20-year-old car. So you're going to pay what? $1,000, $500 for the car. But that car is still doing the same thing as every new car does. It gets you from point A to point B. And when you take a look at what's happened in the aviation side, we now-- today, if you're an airline, it's better or it's cheaper for an airline to keep flying older planes because what it's costing them on fuel costs, they're more than making up by not spending $100 million for a new plane. So what you're seeing in that space is that airlines are leasing older planes. So if you fly, when you came out here, you didn't look at it and go, wow, am I on a new plane or not? You just want to go from Chicago to here. And airlines know that. So they're making actually a lot more money today. And for us, they're leasing those older planes. So we buy those planes, lease them out, and we pretty much get back our cost over three years or four years. And now you still have the value of that plane. So what is a 20-year-old plane-- if it's worth $5 million today, what's it worth in five years? Still $5 million-- $4 million. It's already at-- and the reason-- it's at its liquidation value. And what I mean by that is we bought three planes for $5 million each. They had 12 engines. So what did we do with those planes? Well, right after we bought them, somebody needed engines. So we sold nine of the engines. But we sold nine of the engines for $16 million. So we sold nine of the engines for more than we had bought the all the planes. And now what do we have? We have three planes, can't really fly them. So all you do is part it out.
Views: 2143 Real Vision Finance
What Will Happen To Pensions In The Next Recession? (w/ Raoul Pal) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
03:12
In this clip from Real Vision special 'The Coming Baby Boomer Retirement Crisis' (released 9th May 2018) macroeconomist, Raoul Pal explains the impending pension crisis that not everyone is going to see coming. A must watch for investors and upcoming retirees. To watch the full piece on Real Vision start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2K7aUzr Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ What Will Happen To Pension Funds During The Next Recession? (w/ Raoul Pal) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: You see, the real problem here is it's all about the business cycle. The business cycle, as you know, ebbs and flows. You can see it on the chart here. It goes up and down, and it's relatively predictable-- within some boundaries. But what happens is a piquing, booming economy eventually gives way to a recession. And they come along periodically-- every 4 to 8 years. Now what's interesting about this expansion is this is the second-equal, longest expansion in all economic history. And by next month or the month after, this will be the second longest outright. So what that tells you is there is a probability that this expansion has to end at some point. Could it roll on for another couple of years, 2 or 3 years? Of course it could. Could this end up being the longest ever expansion? Of course it can. The point being is the clock is ticking, and it's moving towards the next recession. Now, normally, that's no big deal. But this time, it's a bit different. You see, in recessions, the stock market generally crashes. That's normal. Companies earn less money. Investors fear worse outcomes than are expected. And the market sells off massively. And over time, it has had a tendency to recover. Well, again, that's a bit of a recency bias. Because all across Europe and other markets around the world, things never did recover. And why didn't they recover versus America? And that's because the Americans have a cult of equity, and the Europeans tend to have a cult of bonds. So Europeans basically gave up on the equity market. The structure of the pension system there means that they own much less equities. They're about 70% or 80% in bonds for this particular cohort. The Americans are the opposite. They're about 70% in equity and equity-like instruments. They're taking huge amounts of risk. Now, normally, in America with this risk seeking culture, once the equity market falls, the 401(k) payments come in as everybody's income starts filtering into the stock market and acts as a break and helps the market rise. The problem is the next recession is going to cross the exact point that the maximum number of people are going into retirement. This has never happened before anywhere. What it means is that all of the life savings that are in equities, which is basically 70% of the entire household balance sheet is going to get wiped out in one recession. And they won't be able to buy back because they won't have an income to buy back. This is the biggest problem I can see in the world today.
Views: 9442 Real Vision Finance
Venture Capital Gone Mad (w/ Josh Wolfe) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
08:44
In his much-anticipated return to Real Vision, Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital, sits down with Michael Green of Thiel Macro. Wolfe explains what he learned from his highly successful investment in Auris Health, which was recently acquired by Johnson & Johnson. The two also talk at length about problems in the VC world surrounding information, and the reasons why many private companies could now be overvalued. Filmed on February 27, 2019 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2TEUVBV About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Venture Capital Gone Mad (w/ Josh Wolfe) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: Let's think about the nonlinearity for a second. And one of the topics you wanted to bring up was this idea of liquidity as a nonlinearity. Yes. And so one of the things that we see within venture capitals is that there's been this explosion of liquidity, particularly exceptionally well-funded growth equity. So not the true VC stage one, Series A-type round, although that obviously has benefited from this dynamic, but the Series E pre-public here's $1 billion, here's a $20 billion valuation, here's a $100 billion valuation. Talk to me about how you think about this liquidity switch and the impact that that has on your industry and the impact that has on innovation? Well, it ultimately is going to define all the returns. And if you go back a little bit and say, well, why are we in this situation, where we've called this in the past, the minnows and the megas? You have lots of these small firms that are starting up that are doing the seed checks, and then you have these large players that are writing these $100 million-plus checks. Going back 7 years or so, Andreessen-- who I think is a brilliant investor, a brilliant technologist- - basically said, there's only 10 companies that matter in a given year. And statically, that's probably true. Now knowing which 10 is very hard, but he said, you just basically want to be in those companies. And I that was a meme that really went very wide. And people said, OK, well, it doesn't matter if you invest in Facebook at $1 billion, or $5 billion, or $10 billion because of we're going to be hundreds of billions. And so does it really matter if we' renegotiating here and quibbling over $1 billion or $2 billion. Well, of course, it does, but that I think induced a lot of growth investors to say, let's just try to speculate on some of these big unicorns. And you've got this phenomenon of companies that were pining to signal that they were going to be that next Facebook by attaining a billion-dollar valuation. And then you got a positive feedback effect where people were funding these things, and to get access, would write a $100 million checks at $900 million per. And they would own 10% in a billion-dollar valuation. And the problem for the early-stage investors and their limited partners is they were getting these huge markups. And on paper, it looked phenomenal. And then they would go out and raise their next fund and put it into more illiquid companies. But they weren't necessarily getting liquidity on that billion-dollar company. And you have started to see over the past 3 or 4 years, a lot of these unicorns not go from $1 billion to $800 million. They've gone from $1 billion or $2 billion to 0. To 0, yeah. And so there's this liquidity trap that is natural in markets because people are basically taking massive amounts of capital, which in the venture world, there's a capital structure just like in the traditional public markets. And you have common equity, which sits on the bottom of the stack
Views: 5116 Real Vision Finance
America's Stagnant Decade (David Stockman) | Expert View | Real Vision™
 
02:15
David Stockman, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget under Ronald Reagan, and the so-called “Father of Reaganomics,” explains why he sees Donald Trump as a big departure from the Republican president he served. In his view, Trump’s policies will hasten an economic crisis. It all starts with the Fed, which Stockman says has inflated assets, thus increasing wealth inequality. He contends that Barack Obama missed an opportunity to change a “failed regime,” but that Trump’s policy position only furthers the path toward a dangerous outcome. Filmed on January 25, 2019 in New York. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch the full video by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2TbqCSo About Expert View: The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ America's Stagnant Decade (David Stockman) | Expert View | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: So this, then, has led to a profound crisis that we're going to see more and more of, I believe, of income distribution. Now I think income distribution is none of the government's damn business. Capitalism rewards those who produce and innovate and so forth and doesn't reward those who don't. There's nothing wrong with that. But when you have an overlay of policy that is designed to inflate artificially and dramatically financial assets, on the one hand, and that actually holds down growth to the flatline on Main Street, on the other, then the result you get is not a natural product of capitalism. It's an artificial distortion stemming from this regime failure that I'm talking about. But the fundamental point is that, if you go back to the pre-crisis peak again in late 2007, median household real wealth was about $130,000. Median household real wealth, that today is about $90,000. It's gone down. At the same time-- and this is the key point-- if you look at total net worth of the household sector, it was $67 trillion at the peak in 2007, and today it's $107 trillion. So we've had a $40 trillion gain in reported net worth of the household sector, but the median net worth has actually gone down. So you know where all of that $40 trillion has gone, or most of it-- to the very top of the income ladder. And that's going to generate, I think, a tremendous negative left-wing political reaction, which is the next shoe to fall.
Views: 4129 Real Vision Finance
Serial Entrepreneur (w/ Ross Beaty Outtake) | Grant Williams | Real Vision™
 
06:47
Grant travels to western Canada for a conversation with Pan American Silver Chairman, Canadian Mining Hall of Fame inductee, and Order of Canada recipient Ross Beaty. The two discuss Ross’s extraordinary career as a serial entrepreneur across multiple different resources, and pick apart the successes and failures that have shaped one of the most successful mining executives of the last half century. Ross describes his successful ventures in silver, gold, copper, and alternative energy, and explains his deep philanthropic commitment to the environment, in a fascinating and engaging conversation. Now, for a limited time, subscribe to Real Vision for just $180/year and we’ll throw in a full year of free access to Business Insider Prime (worth $99). Click for your 14-day trial: https://rvtv.io/2NZUHla Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Start a 14-day free trial: https://rvtv.io/2NfusU4 About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Serial Entrepreneur (w/ Ross Beaty Outtake) | Grant Williams | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 3978 Real Vision Finance
Risk Assets Have Front-Run Reality (w/ Tian Yang) | Expert View
 
32:28
Risk assets have rallied aggressively in the first quarter of 2019, in what appears to reflect an anticipation that global central banks will repeat the reflation trade that they initiated in early 2016. But Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception, believes that investors may be ignoring the shifts in central banks' priorities and in the inflation picture that have transpired between then and now. For that reason, the recent divergence between asset prices and leading indicators could leave many markets looking vulnerable, Filmed on March 19, 2019 in London. Variant Perception’s research note ‘No Deja-Vu: 2016 Reflation Analogy Does Not Fit’ was published on Real Vision’s Think Tank on March 14, 2019. Variant Perception’s research note ‘Understanding Bear Markets’ can be found on their website by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2HKqh3M Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: https://rvtv.io/2HZ94DJ About The Expert View: Deep dive analysis from global experts exploring investment risks and opportunities. A perennial RV favorite, Expert View probes the minds of leading professionals of their respective fields and offers insight into every corner of financial markets. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ Instagram: https://rvtv.io/2J7Ddlw Facebook: https://rvtv.io/2NNOlmu Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Risk Assets Have Front-Run Reality (w/ Tian Yang) | Expert View https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision Transcript: For the full transcript: https://rvtv.io/2HZ94DJ What're seeing this time around is a V-shaped bottom. It's gone down and it's gone straight back up. And if we do go on to make new highs, and in hindsight, this is the bottom, this will be incredibly rare historically. GDP doesn't go from, like, 2 to 1 to zero to minus 1, right? It's going to go along at 2, and then the next print is zero and it's minus 3, it tends to be a lot more of a gap. You can see that Swedish indicators have basically collapsed. So that's telling you there's more pain to come. My name is Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception. So at Variant Perception, what we focus on are leading economic indicators. If you look at the way the economy works, it tends to be more mechanical than people realize. There's a fixed sequence in which things have to happen in the economy. For example, building permits necessarily have to go up before construction activity can pick up. Similarly, if you're an employer, you would typically hire or fire temp workers before you would hire or fire a full-time worker. So temporary employment will tend to turn before full-time employment. So if you look for these, kind of leading, coincident lagging relationships within the economy, then it'll give you a much better sense of where the economy is going. It's almost like when you're driving a car and you see the car in front do something with indicator lights and you know they're going to turn before the car actually moves. That's what we're trying to do with lead indicators Lead indicators are not necessarily new. They've been around since at least the 1980s, you know the likes of Geoffrey Moore wrote the original academic papers on it. However, what we are trying to do is actually apply it in a robust and repeatable way to real-world investing. So it's kind of like the Yogi Berra quote about, in theory, there's no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there might be. And so it is with leading indicators. A lot of traditional approaches to economic research are very theoretical in nature. You know you go to the World Bank, IMF, download the database, run your model. But in the real world, data is revised. You see the GDP print come out, and a few months later it's revised.
Views: 17683 Real Vision Finance
China: The Next Crisis (w/ Kyle Bass) | Real Vision™
 
05:18
The only financial TV that matters. Start a 14-day free trial on Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/2vOl2sk “We are facing the largest macro imbalance in history.” Hear Kyle Bass discuss the current Chinese NPL crisis and its possible effects on the broader market – only at Real Vision. Real Vision is the world's only video-on-demand for finance - no sales, no bias, no bullshit. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ China: The Next Crisis (w/ Kyle Bass) | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 61897 Real Vision Finance
What’s the Best Trade In The Twilight Zone? (w/ Kyle Bass) | Interview | Real Vision™
 
02:42
Watch the interview in full (and more) on Real Vision. Start your 7-day free trial: http://rvtv.io/2w6PpYX Investing legend Kyle Bass sets out what he sees as the Best Trade in the World right now, exploiting market volatility going forward, as well some perspectives on the future for cryptocurrencies. Watch more Real Vision™ videos: http://po.st/RealVisionVideos Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube:http://po.st/RealVisionSubscribe About The Interview: Unfiltered, long-form deep dives with the most successful investors in the world. In discussions across a range of subjects, we dig into the minds of the sharpest investors to find out what makes them tick. If you’ve ever wanted to learn from the best, this series is where to go. About Real Vision™: Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Twitter: https://rvtv.io/2p5PrhJ What’s the Best Trade In The Twilight Zone? (w/ Kyle Bass) | Interview | Real Vision™ https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevision
Views: 3961 Real Vision Finance