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Why Trading Forex is so Difficult - Randomness in the Markets: Clusters of Bad and Good Luck

3174 ratings | 207488 views
● We interview traders & educators regularly. Subscribe if you want to learn while being entertained. ✔ Please like the video and comment if you enjoyed - it helps a lot! ● To Trade forex we recommend Ayondo http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/spreadbetting/Ayondo-compare.html Why Trading Forex is so Difficult: Randomness in the Markets: Clusters of Bad and Good Luck. David Paul, Financial Trader comments. If you found value in watching this video, PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE so we can do more! It is always my understanding that it is difficult to make money long term when trading currencies and indices - how do you manage? Most trend following systems have less than a 50% correct hit rate. This means that you get a series of losing trades from time-to-time - how good would you be with executing your system with precision when you get 5 losing trades in a row.
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Text Comments (207)
Ilkay Exquisite (20 days ago)
That girl is cute
Einseitig (25 days ago)
Now this is the best video I have seen in a long time. Well explained with the mathematics of probability too.
Vino Co (1 month ago)
Lol nothing in the market happens by accident. #pewpewcrew 😘
Crush Andrea (1 month ago)
great video! helps me a lot
A Hardworking Guy (1 month ago)
Even if u win 50% of the time with Risk:Reward = 1:2, you are still profitable. If u win 30% of the time with Risk:Reward = 1:3, u r still profitable. Trading is Mind Game. It tests your Patience to wait for the perfect entry. Sniper Entries? They are done after a setup forms on Daily. Then wait for a setup of 4H, then 1H and then take the shot. This process requires PATIENCE. Trust the process and you will win. I am quite profitable in Forex and been working very hard for the last 2 years. It was a great journey. It fucks with your mind, but you have got to be Patient. No greed.
This guy knows this $hit very very well
Roy Reyes (2 months ago)
happened to me, best trade was a buy and forget... good interview validates man insatiable appetite for that zulu stuff ha ha ha
KK SS (2 months ago)
Kurt Smock (2 months ago)
In addition to expectancy, The Wave Principle is bonkers good for understanding these "runs of luck" as he calls them.. progress and retrace. It's the nature of the universe 👍😁
FX Master Trader (3 months ago)
In the last few trading videos I've done, I've directly spoken about trading discipline and trading psychology while actually making money, on a live account, in real time....
drayzen (3 months ago)
So if he gets it right 60-65% of the time, and wrong 30-35%, what happens the other 5%? 🤔 😄
JamesPossible (3 months ago)
love this vid, great discussion...this is a must watch/listen for every trade.
Honeybadger (3 months ago)
People saying that forex trading success must be luck are clearly not understanding the video. He is saying that even with the most optimal strategy, luck will eventually take you out unless you manage your risk. He isn't saying that success must equal luck.
emmanuel9744 (3 months ago)
Excellent ! Thank you !
Kill The Facade (3 months ago)
O K ?
Mack Wilson (3 months ago)
Noel Conrad (3 months ago)
I like when she answer: "I don't know." 2:25
Freddie Stoker (3 months ago)
feel like i've just been hit by a truck, He had me on every word. Exceptional.
Ivan Prado (3 months ago)
He's not lying here he's talking about the real reason why traders fail it all comes down to risk management.
Chris Phillips (3 months ago)
Hey man, I feel you bro. Lost a lot of my money in the beginning, then really opened my eyes and listened to real investors. Now I just buy long term stocks, etfs, index’s and just focus on compounding. I don’t even check my account anymore, but every time I do, it goes up higher and higher. Slowly, but it really works. Day trade and swing trade really screwed me over.
Mr Smith (3 months ago)
Luck is a Ghastly friend of sorts
m (3 months ago)
I am a veteran trader and finally could make an adaptable strategy that can make money in choppy and trending market.
G Dogg (4 months ago)
there is a simple solution to all this (Because of Market Manipulation.. I call it the Snail and the hare), Distant your stops and trade short ( meaning a psychological not to think big, because big is a gamble) trade with low constant profits, follow the trend and sell if you have to and stay ahead.
WikiFX WikiFX (4 months ago)
I can’t agree with you more.
N. Mendez (4 months ago)
This guy is awesome. "All the ADX's of the world makes no darn difference"
Pro Quant (5 months ago)
Very interesting
S3ODOVIÇ (5 months ago)
I don’t believe in good nor bad luck
Ernest Ndzimandze (5 months ago)
Hehehehe, Forex is can be very entertaining too! .......I find that not being greedy and willing to put in the hours helps a lot!
David Potterman (5 months ago)
Banks will always beat individuals, so virtually all established systems will be predicted by the banks and manipulated for them to win
Georg Sommerseth (5 months ago)
Very good and understandable way to display the "why's" of good and bad Luck going on!...
Gedalia Niasoff (5 months ago)
in order to save this game u need the full knowlege and its 90% of the risk u control if u can stick to your risk and your money management then u will survive
Brah Ma (5 months ago)
Daniel Parkes (5 months ago)
Can anyone direct me to a good forex learning page?
UKspreadbetting (5 months ago)
Check these videos out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esISrZIHIC4&list=PLandjIy5eKJl95PEhjs-DQoTxUgIQu3JX
ben pie (6 months ago)
Randomness doesnt exist
Chase null (6 months ago)
quallo EXHEXD S.A. (6 months ago)
So forex is about luck😨
Gico Regacho (6 months ago)
Whats the name of the guy?
Andre Alexander (6 months ago)
His genetic makeup is just wonderful
I managed to lose so much money investing - my wife dragged me to spend a weekend camped on the sand of an isolated private beach in another country.. one with no internet or cell service as luck had it our $60,000 USD grossly jammed into bitcoin ripple bitcoin gold went to shit when the market went south Jan 2018
You get a sequence of 3 every 64 rolls
Michael Arias (6 months ago)
He lost me at random, this is all BS.
Simple Mind (7 months ago)
Traders who trade based on their gut feelings or luck won't last very long.
Lungelo Gwala (7 months ago)
Any Zulu's in the house😀😀?
Apollos Hill (7 months ago)
I know what he is trying to explain about trading short-term in the Forex Market it is better for a midterm and long-term trades but the way he explained it was extremely confusing
Augustine O. (7 months ago)
Anyone trading forex based on luck is doomed to fail because trading isn't about luck but pure skill cultivated over a period. It is like developing any other skill such as writing, singing, instruments, cobbler etc. You have to understand markets and how and why price moves in markets. People who succeed in forex understand where market movers are willing to buy and sell. Anyone who believes primarily in luck for trading success has a problem with his/her view of reallity. Your view is being obscured by irrational, illogical, non-evidence based mentality which can be found mainly in people of faith and people with high credulity.
tony a (7 months ago)
you have to treat it as a business , the 35%of times you are wrong is just business costs , every business has them , trading is no exception
nandy surya (7 months ago)
Nice explanation for FX trade
News Update (7 months ago)
I like his analogy. funny but 100% correct!
Kurt Cooper (7 months ago)
I don't have rabbits feet, I don't kiss beads, I don't cross my fingers & luck is a random word u use to fit a sentence or solution in place of wisdom. I don't believe in luck & never had a 5 in a row losing streak. Average 80% winners even though it's only going to give u a 10%+ return. But hey, I like listening to new ideas & everyone has an opoinion. But your math is based on luck.
Edwin Jansen (7 months ago)
It is always a challenge to keep listening when the person mentions a strategy in the first minute that is the exact opposite from what you are comfortable with and you trust and feel is the right strategy for you. I will get back later when my teachability is better. Of course strategies are as personal as tastes are. Trading is all about personal psychology. There are probable as many profitable strategies as there are people.
Rodrigo Albornoz (7 months ago)
This one was amazing! Thanks!!
Mr. Moneyman (7 months ago)
IT IS NOT 50-50, not even close , just had an experiment on my demo account, 100 trades which I executed on random basis (not even all random, had some good strategy trades, but market always shaked me off even tho I was setting up my stop losses according to 14 days ATR. My winning ratio was only 25% , even tho my risk reward was 1-2.5. I was trading Crude Oil. If I had edge of only 32% I would be profitable. For some reason we are hardwired to lose. 100 trades is not a small sample, and what really creeps me out is that the universe doesn't want everybody to have 50% chance, why is that ?
Keith Jackson (7 months ago)
learn and master market structure
kwastro (7 months ago)
The market is random?? U must be smoking sh*t to think that. Many still think its random mmmmh keep learning.
day dreamer (8 months ago)
bang on.after experinnicingg such issue i hv learnt risk management is always necessary.
Simon Cornell (8 months ago)
Came for Forex advice - received a life lesson :D
forex hunter (8 months ago)
because you dont have much or big balance..so forex is difficult...
Luca Puzzoli (8 months ago)
Euphoria is a riskless state of mind ! be confident but not euphoric
scott medes (8 months ago)
studying charts doesnt allow you to study business.
kebman (8 months ago)
Is he South African? Ah, so he _is_ South African! Hehe, I gather I have a hunch why he'd bet on copper, then...
Gerald Davis (9 months ago)
What do I do if I want to sell South Africa short.
quan talor (9 months ago)
All you gotta do is keep up with the trend , it’s really not that difficult, you must have multiple strategies as well , it’s literally like robbing a bank
RightClic God (9 months ago)
I got a sick winrate, way better than what he mentions, but I risk 1 to make 1 lol. I like winning, so I prefer it that way :) Just wanted to say, there is not just 1 way to do things.
BROJR. (9 months ago)
great, thank you.
Jacob Cooley (9 months ago)
buy currency in a growing economy(india) and sell currency in a failing economy(japan). hold on for a couple years. use 2-5 leverage.
Mitu Sens (9 months ago)
Excellent observations, he makes great sense. The subtitles are a scream.
S Capone (9 months ago)
I HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF HEARING THIS NONSENSE. This is hands down the most misleading and stupid interview I have ever seen. Trading forex is not random for god's sake. Price is driven by supply and demand. economic news releases are all priced into the forex markets like you wouldnt believe. People lose because of 3 main things. 1...psychology (fear, impatience, greed, stupidity) 2...No understanding of money/risk management and 3...They dont have ONE strategy/setup that they have mastered/backtested, and understand in which conditions the strategy/setup works a HUGE majority of the time, and in which conditions it doesnt. I trade 1 setup with a 90-95% win rate with a risk:reward of minium 1:2 per trade. This guy in this interview is not a good trader. Period. If your strategy/setup works "50%" of the time then it can work 90-99% of the time. How you may ask? It is simple. Find the common factors/market conditions as to why your strategy only worked in that "50%" bracket of wins. You WILL find that all your winners have similar things. Then, have the PATIENCE to WAIT and only trade when the market is in those EXACT similar conditions. For example. was the market structure trending? was it ranging? was it during london session? newyork session? Just think about it...
Finance Owl (9 months ago)
Forex trading is difficult... Had to use high leverage for gains.. An 0.1% miss and it will be over 😵
Charlie Brookes (9 months ago)
The things i would do to talk one on one with that man for an hour...
ForgottenKnight1 (9 months ago)
Theory is all nice and dandy, but this does not happen in real trading. What happens in real trading is that you can get 2 wins, for example followed by 6 losses in a row, then 5 wins, followed by 1 loss, then 9 followed by 3 and so on. It is much more random than you think. You cannot theorize your success rate. Also, much more important is not the frequency of your losses, but the consequences of each particular loss. You can be wrong 9 times and right just 1 to make it even when it comes to money. The opposite can also happen, where 9 wins get erased by 1 loss. So frequency is not so important as consequence .
Finance Owl (9 months ago)
ForgottenKnight1 , you are right when it comes to forex trading....
wind Winston (10 months ago)
after this video i am considering selling my granny
Aleks Martini (10 months ago)
Bla bla bla ... machine learning and AI is the future
Michael M. (10 months ago)
surprisingly very good interview
jullian mark (10 months ago)
top top man. wisdom and knowledge with no ego.
Dirk Maier (10 months ago)
And Forex is a Zero-Sum game. That what you win must another lose. And there are mostly Banks and other professional Traders against you. I tried it but the Stock-Market is easier in my opinion because that is no Zero-Sum game and when the Stocks go up all can win. Win-Win-Situation for everybody . Thats much easier.
SCHRODINGER’S CAT (10 months ago)
dont listen to a forex trader who says its easy. he hasn't hit the wipe out yet. trading forex is a humbling experience. theres absolutely nothing 'easy' about trading currencies.
P. Thriver (10 months ago)
I want to be this guy when I grow up. But with more hair.
Tharwat Jad (10 months ago)
What a beautiful and genius mind I really like him
Tudor Renegade (10 months ago)
This is so true, I have experienced all those states!
JmansFragments (10 months ago)
Im.gunna slay the forex markets completely on a super level 🔥 watch
Iwona Rudnik (11 months ago)
who is this guy
CeleronS1 (11 months ago)
5 straight loses is not 32 but 25. Just sayin :D
Matt Lucero (11 months ago)
Best interview I ever seen. Honest funny guy and confirmed most of my assumptions of the market.
screamao (11 months ago)
if out of 10,u can get 6 profit trade thats already amazing.the key is to maintain 60% profit,leave 40% for losses
Yung100 (11 months ago)
Two words Risk Management 👌
Shaun's Fish Tanks (11 months ago)
read the price action and look for confluences,,, easy
james thackray (11 months ago)
The maths is based on a strategy of tossing a coin!!!!
RICKY GRIFFIN (11 months ago)
Trade London open only 2am to 4am Cst
Trader Kevin (11 months ago)
1000% agree , very well said
shadz goodridge (11 months ago)
i can listen to him and learn a lot he's ranking with chris terri love listening to them
Singularity (11 months ago)
He has it. Its all psychological. It's not centered on the strategy or the market, not the news or the value but in the behavior of the humans trading. The reason why many people lose in trading is they lack knowledge and discipline. They don't know how humans behave in certain scenarios and don't put in the amount of effort to learn it. Because of this they go in blind with a strategy they learned that might not work because it conflicts with the most important factor in trading: "Human." Sometimes these strategies work like fitting a triangle through a circle but other times they fall hard because the market doesn't behave in the way that strategy works best. We must develop the skills to read past the charts and ratios and see the way a human reading those charts will feel about them and the decisions they themselves will choose. We aren't playing a numbers game against computers, we are playing a mind game against fellow humans. "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Sun Tzu
Kuziai (11 months ago)
There is no randomness in forex market everything controlled right to a PIP! yes a PIP. Algorithms do that not ppl. Its easy to predict the market once you know what algorhitms will do for the day. Second thing if you make more that 5 loses in a row quit trading because you have 0 understanding about markets
Hayden Lawrence (11 months ago)
Excellent interview. Key point for me is managing risk. Forget about how many losing trades you have just try to keep them small and let your good trades play out. In practice you can have more losing trades than winning trades and still turn a profit if you have the discipline to cut your loses and let the winners run.
Zhi Kai Zhang (11 months ago)
Thank you 🙏
Lawrence _ (11 months ago)
@Allan Mena I agree with you those who know how to trade forex will never tell you......
Azu Shi (11 months ago)
how come stocks have higher hit rate?
They (and they are out there) that 90% of all traders fail. because they still need ditch diggers and burger flippers, go to college and take a loan for $50,000 + and spend 4+ years of your life taking courses that don’t mean shit, they (individuals) come out and have to work minimum wage. Now that’s failure...nobody takes about that.
It is crazy how many of these guys start with the negative instead of giving you something you can use. All of this negative programming by these markets have an affect. You can achieve anything!!!!!
Khutso Seleke (1 year ago)
The trick is to hold all bad positions until you breakeven. Dont sell at a loss.

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